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Sectors

The war in Ukraine has ended in late 2022… for markets at least. This is the conclusion from our GeoMacro team’s latest report, which aims to dispel five crucial myths surrounding the conflict. The myths are the following: The Ukraine-Russia War Will…
US retail sales beat expectations in September, rising 0.4% from August when growth was essentially flat. The control group also beat expectations at 0.7% month-on-month, accelerating from 0.3%. Growth was however somehow weak on an annual basis, suggesting a…
Third-quarter earnings season has started last week for banks, with most major banks reporting earnings above expectations so far. Our US Investment strategists routinely analyze the big banks' earnings calls to gauge their views on the strength of…
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) – a summary statistic of US economic data releases – increased to 0.12 from -0.42, suggesting that the US economy improved in August. Details, however, do not point to a broad-based acceleration since…

One of the best things about working at the world’s largest – and oldest! – market research firm is that the “vault” contains research on almost any conceivable topic. As such, I pen this short missive to flag to the GeoMacro clients three reports on the risk of tech regulation – relevant in the context of the October 8 US Department of Justice statement that it may look to force Google to divest parts of its business.

The US election underscores three long-term trends of Generational Change, Peak Polarization, and Limited Big Government. Investors should expect more volatility around the election and should assess the results before adding more risk. While we predicted the October surprise from the Middle East, more surprises are coming before the final vote is cast.

The Swiss KOF Barometer is a composite leading indicator of the Swiss economy. It surprised to the upside in September coming in at 105.5 against expectations of 101.0. The August reading was also significantly revised higher, from 101.6 to 105.0. …
The European Commission voted to impose tariffs of up to 45% on imports of Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). The announcement follows previous tariffs imposed on Chinese EV imports back in June. This new round of economic sanctions will only have a minor…
According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, CAPEX does not appear to be especially broad-based even among the largest companies in the US. The enclosed chart presents a bottom-up estimate of CAPEX as a percent of sales for the S&P…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, absent the multi-decade housing and construction boom, China will be unable to generate the monster credit impulses that it did through 2000-20.  While the credit impulse surged through the 2000-20…