Sectors
Our negative stance on European growth and assets is not devoid of risks. To gauge whether these risks warrant upgrading our growth outlook, we monitor Sweden closely. So, what is the current message from this Nordic economy?
Favor Health Care and Utilities for defensive positioning amid economic slowdown and volatility as the presidential election approaches. A Republican Sweep favors Real Estate and Materials, while the second most likely outcome, Democrat gridlock, favors Health Care, and Information Technology.
It didn't take long for markets to utterly shrug off the surprise rise in July's unemployment rate. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed higher than it was the day before the July Employment Situation report was released. The Russell 2000 gained 5.2% since…
Singapore is a small open economy sensitive to global trade dynamics. Its non-oil exports (NODX) are thus a good bellwether for global growth conditions. They rebounded sharply in July from a previous contraction, largely exceeding expectations. Notably,…
Preliminary estimates suggest that US retail sales surprised to the upside in July. They grew by 1.0% m/m from a 0.2% monthly contraction in June, exceeding expectations of a slower 0.4% pace of growth. Sales of vehicles and parts (+3.6% m/m) were the main…
US industrial production fell by a larger-than-expected 0.6% m/m in July, the largest monthly decline so far this year. Capacity utilization also decreased a full percentage point to 77.8% Although Hurricane Beryl distorted these nationwide July numbers,…
China’s economic malaise extended through the month of July. The contraction in property investment worsened (-10.2% YTD y/y) and disappointed expectations of a slower pace of decline. Residential property sales remained dismal (-25.9% YTD y/y). Industrial…
Goods prices have normalized following the pandemic binge on goods spending and have contributed to easing price pressures overall. A large drop in vehicle prices largely drove the decrease in July’s CPI and we have questioned the sustainability of an…
Market and economic observers have devoted a lot of attention to the Sahm Rule following July’s employment report, and whether or not it has been triggered. BCA’s analysis has highlighted that the overall direction of the labor market is far more important…
There has been no shortage of twists since last Friday’s employment situation report. On Monday, the July ISM Services PMI release dissipated some of the risk-off mood that dominated markets. On Thursday, positive signals from weekly unemployment claims…