Sectors

Special Report

Highlights President Biden’s proposal to raise the capital gains tax rate from 20% to 43.4% is part of the American Families Plan, which at best has a 50% chance of passing before the 2022 midterm election. Biden will soon present the full outline of this $1 trillion bill. The legislative priority is the American Jobs Plan with infrastructure spending and corporate tax hikes. This bill has an 80% chance of passing by Christmas. If it passes by end of July, then the odds of passing the American Families Plan prior to the midterm will shoot up. But we expect it to take to November, which could render the families plan (and capital gains tax) a campaign issue for 2022. Republicans are much more likely to vote for infrastructure spending than tax hikes. Traditional infrastructure can be separated into a bipartisan bill with Republicans and passed along with a renewed highway authorization by September. This creates an alternate avenue for infrastructure. Democrats would still pass the rest of Biden’s American Jobs Plan via reconciliation, including corporate tax hikes, which will only be watered down a bit. We reiterate our recommendations in favor of the BCA Infrastructure Basket and the Biden Fiscal Advantage Equity Basket. Given the eight-year span of the US infrastructure proposals, we recommend a cyclical and structural overweight for these baskets. Feature President Joe Biden’s $2.3 trillion American Jobs Plan is shifting from the initial phase – “coordinated policy rollout” and media cheerleading – to the drawn-out process of congressional negotiation and voting. None of our core views on the bill have changed: we expect the bill to pass before the end of the year and to be similar to what Biden has proposed on both corporate tax hikes and spending. Some spending proposals can be offloaded, some tax hikes can be watered down, but the gist of the bill is known to investors. Scares over Biden’s proposed capital gains tax hike are premature as this bill must pass before Congress can turn to Biden’s second plan and individual tax hikes. In this special report with BCA’s US Equity Strategy, we update the status of the bill and then take a closer look at our BCA Infrastructure Basket. We recommend investors stick to this trade over a structural time horizon of 12 months-plus. Biden’s Bill Will Pass – Bipartisanship Is Possible But Separate Biden’s infrastructure plan will pass on a party-line vote through budget reconciliation. Republicans will reject tax increases; Democrats will muster all 50 of their caucus votes plus Vice President Kamala Harris. Procedurally, reconciliation has been cleared. The fiscal 2021 budget resolution will be revised and this will enable Democratic leaders to cram the infrastructure package into a new reconciliation bill, ostensibly to raise the debt ceiling, which is due to expire on July 31. Technical public debt default will loom in early fall to help the Democrats motivate stragglers to vote for the bill.1 Spending Compromises: The reconciliation process will keep the price tag of the bill from rising higher than the proposed $2.3 trillion, since it will mostly exclude “earmarks.” States will have to apply in a competitive bidding for funding for projects beginning sometime in 2022 rather than receive guarantees of special projects in exchange for their senator’s vote for the overall package. The headline price tag could be whittled down by about $1 trillion if a bipartisan deal is done. Biden’s proposal consists of $784 billion in traditional infrastructure, $647 billion in social welfare, $370 billion in green energy initiatives, $280 billion in tech initiatives, and $219 billion in business support (Chart 1). The Republicans might be willing to agree to most of the traditional infrastructure as well as some of the tech initiatives and business support (Chart 2). This means these measures could be removed from the bill and passed separately. This would leave the Democrats to pass the rest on their own, including corporate tax hikes, which they could do at earliest by the end of July and at latest by the end of December (Diagram 1). Or Democrats could pass the whole package alone. Chart 1American Jobs Plan Has $784Bn In Traditional Infrastructure Chart 2Republicans Support Roads And Bridges Diagram 1Timeline For Congress To Pass American Jobs Plan By End Of 2021 Tax Compromises: Much has been made of West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin’s claim that the corporate tax rate should not exceed 25%, as opposed to Biden’s preferred 28%. Manchin is not alone, however. Table 1 highlights other Senate Democrats who oppose a 28% rate. These decisive swing voters may get a reduction in the rate but we tend to doubt it will be modified much from the proposal. Corporate tax hikes are popular – including when presented as a responsible way to pay for infrastructure (Chart 3). A minimum corporate tax will play very well politically while the headline corporate rate can be toggled one or two percentage points to ensure the bill gets enough votes (Chart 4). Chart 3Independents Support Corporate Taxes For Infrastructure Chart 4Voters Favor Corporate Tax Hike And Minimum Tax Table 1Centrist Senators: Democrats Who Oppose A 28% Corporate Rate, Republicans Who Voted To Convict Trump Of Insurrection, And Others Bipartisan infrastructure spending is possible but separate. Republicans are at risk of getting steamrolled by Democrats in the coming years. Democrats have stolen back the lead on infrastructure, manufacturing, trade, and China, yet they are free of the taint of mishandling the pandemic. Most importantly they have gotten hold of the magic money tree (Modern Monetary Theory), which enables them to expand the social safety net in a historic way that could boost the fortunes of their own party and its underlying principle of Big Government for a decade or more. Thus the pressure will be high on Republicans to show that they can govern and compromise – and infrastructure is the policy on which it is least painful for the GOP to join them. Republicans could hive off traditional “roads and bridges” – as well as tech competition with China – into a separate bill that could go forward on a bipartisan basis. There is a separate opportunity to pass infrastructure spending because the federal highway funding authorization, the 2015 FAST Act, expires on September 30 (Chart 5). The need to reauthorize this law will force lawmakers to act, thus presenting an opportunity to top up funding for traditional infrastructure projects.2 But this merely highlights that infrastructure spending has multiple avenues. If partisanship prevails as usual then Democrats will drive through their bill anyway. Chart 5US Infrastructure Spending In Recent Decades The regular budget process will be gridlocked. The regular appropriations process for FY2022 will not be an avenue for increased spending. Limits on discretionary spending expire at the end of FY2021 so there are no limits on budget appropriations. But 60 votes are needed for appropriations. Republicans will be loath to assist Democrats on the normal budget while the latter achieve all their other priorities via reconciliation. The economy will not need extra spending. A continuing resolution – a stopgap measure that keeps appropriations at the same level as the previous year – is the likeliest outcome. Or a government shutdown, which might be useful for Republicans to rally their base after a demoralizing year, though it would hurt their standing among the general public. Biden’s $1 trillion American Families Plan will be presented on April 28. This bill could pass in H1 2022, if the American Jobs Plan passes by July, but it is just as likely to become the Democrats’ campaign platform for the 2022 midterms. This bill will require the House and Senate to draft a FY2022 concurrent resolution, which cannot be finalized prior to passing the FY2021 reconciliation bill for both parliamentary and budgetary reasons. The economy will be red hot and fiscal fatigue will be setting in. We stick with our subjective 50/50 odds of passage for this bill. This means that the market’s concern over the capital gains rate hike is premature. First, Democrats have been back-loading tax hikes to prioritize economic recovery – and minimize negative impacts prior to the midterm election – so there is no reason to expect the capital gains tax hike to be retroactive whenever the American Families Plan passes Congress. If Congress passes it in mid-2022 then it will most likely go into effect on January 1, 2023. Second, the capital gains rate itself will likely be watered down from Biden’s proposed 43.4% to something around 32%. The good news for investors is that Biden is proposing to keep the distinction between individual income and capital gains (thus preserving the “carried interest loophole”). The bad news is that he is also keeping the Obamacare surtax of 3.8% on capital gains for those making over $250,000 or more. The American Families Plan is not urgent for investors because it is less likely to pass than the American Jobs Plan – and Republicans could win the House in 2022. But if the latter passes by July then the odds of the former passing before the midterm will shoot up. The family plan also shows that there is an upside risk to the budget deficit outlook and inflation expectations (Chart 6). Chart 6Revised US Budget Deficit Projection Post-ARPA Investment Implications Of Biden’s Sweeping Infrastructure Package While both the CBO and IMF currently project that the fiscal impulse will turn negative in 2022 (a mid-term election year) following a modest decrease this year, government largesse has staying power (Chart 7). Chart 7Fiscal Easing… The populist shift in US politics will push government expenditures as a share of output to nose-bleed levels. Given the lack of adequate tax offsets, it will buttress government debt-to-GDP to levels last seen during WWII (Chart 8). True, debt sustainability largely depends on nominal GDP growth, but spendthrift politicians are unconcerned about paying back debt as interest rates are held low courtesy of an extremely accommodative Federal Reserve and (temporarily) well-behaved bond vigilantes. This is all welcome news for equities exposed to fiscal spending in general and for infrastructure-reliant shares in particular. Two weeks ago we matched different segments of Biden’s infrastructure proposal (Tables A1 and A2 in the Appendix) to eight ETFs and one stock that now comprise our Biden Fiscal Advantage equity basket (Chart 9).3 Today we reiterate our sanguine view on this basket – especially versus the NASDAQ 100, given the high concentration of tech stocks in these ETFs. Chart 8...And Debt Uptake Bode Well For Infrastructure Stocks Chart 9Stick With The Biden Fiscal Advantage Basket Importantly, Charts 7 & 8 highlight that a rising fiscal deficit and ballooning government debt are a boon for the BCA’s infrastructure stock basket both from a cyclical and structural perspective.4 Tack on the Fed’s 6.5% real GDP growth projections for calendar 2021 that are more or less in line with the Street’s economic expectations and even the shorter-term outlook brightens for these infrastructure-laden equities (real GDP forecast shown advanced, Chart 10). Chart 10Enticing Domestic Growth Already, the US ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is soaring following up the path of the ISM manufacturing survey, corroborating that the US economy is firing on all cylinders (top panel, Chart 11). While the recent bond market selloff has gone on hiatus, it will likely prove short-lived. The US population is on track to reach herd immunity sometime this fall and by then inflation will be rearing its ugly head (bottom panel, Chart 11). As a result, the 10-year US Treasury yield should resume its ascent (middle panel, Chart 11). Chart 11Plenty Of Upside Left Historically, all these key macro indicators have been positively correlated with the relative share price ratio of BCA’s infrastructure equity basket and the current message is positive (Chart 11). Beyond the conducive domestic backdrop, likely in the back half of the year the rest of the world will also be on the cusp of getting back to normal – with China’s pace of deceleration being the sole question mark – heralding a synchronized global growth setting. Not only will the US twin deficits weigh on the greenback, but a looming commodity up-cycle is also a boon for hypersensitive commodity-exposed currencies. This dual boost coupled with the budding rebound in EMs is music to the ears of US infrastructure-reliant US conglomerates (Chart 12). Gelling everything together, our US and global capex indicators do an excellent job in encapsulating all of these moving parts. Chart 13 shows that both of our capital expenditure indicators are in V-shaped recoveries, with our global capex one probing multi-decade highs. Chart 12Alluring EM Growth Chart 13Heed The Bullish Message From Our Capex Indicators Bottom Line: The sweeping American Jobs Plan will bolster both the BCA infrastructure and BCA Biden Fiscal Advantage equity baskets. Given the multi-year span of this looming bill, we recommend a cyclical and structural overweight in both baskets.   Matt Gertken Vice President Geopolitical Strategy mattg@bcaresearch.com Anastasios Avgeriou US Equity Strategist anastasios@bcaresearch.com   Appendix Table A1 Table A2 Footnotes 1       Paul M. Krawzak, “More questions than answers in parliamentarian’s budget opinion,” Roll Call, April 8, 2021, www.rollcall.com. 2       Jinjoo Lee, “Road Is Smoother Than Expected For Infrastructure, Biden Plan Or Not,” Wall Street Journal, March 24, 2021, wsj.com. 3      As a reminder, the ticker symbols we included in this Equity Basket are: PAVE, PHO, QCLN, TAN, WOOD, SOXX, HAIL, GRID and SU. We choose SU as there is no pure play Canadian oil sands ETF trading in USD. 4      We first created this basket in late-2018 comprising a range of industrials and materials indexes that should see a positive reaction to a spur in infrastructure demand; Table A2 in the Appendix at the end of this report updates all the constituents in our basket.  

Neutral (Downgrade Alert) Soft drinks have taken a beating recently and we are on the lookout for an oversold bounce before we go underweight this consumer goods sub-group, especially given our short-term cautious outlook. Our technical indicator also made a new 20-year low and is well below the level consistent with previous reversals, underscoring that a counter-trend bounce is a high probability event (bottom panel). On the earnings’ front, while KO’s and PEP’s earnings were on the bright side, leading macro indicators signal that investors will be better off to avoid this defensive consumer staples sub-index. Importantly, safe-haven soft drink stocks that tend to be very stable cash flow generators both in good times and in bad, fare worse during the early stages of an economic expansion. As growth transitions from scarcity to abundance, investors start to shed staples exposure including soft drinks (ISM shown inverted, middle panel). Bottom Line: The S&P soft drinks index is on our downgrade watchlist. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5SOFD – KO, PEP, MNST. For more details, please refer to this Monday’s Strategy Report.  

Highlights Higher copper prices will follow in the wake of China's surge in steel demand, which lifted Shanghai steel futures to an all-time high just under 5,200 RMB/MT earlier this month, as building and infrastructure projects are completed this year (Chart of the Week). Copper will register physical deficits this year and next, which will pull inventories even lower and will push demand for copper scrap up in China and globally. High and rising copper prices could prompt government officials to release some of China's massive state holdings of copper – believed to total some 2mm MT – if the current round of market jawboning fails to restrain demand and price increases. Strong steel margins and another round of environmental restraints on mills are boosting demand for high-grade iron ore (65% Fe), which hit a record high of just under $223/MT earlier this week. Benchmark iron ore prices (62% Fe) traded at 10-year highs this week, just a touch below $190/MT. We are lifting our copper price forecast for December 2021 to $5.00/lb from $4.50/lb. In addition, we are getting long 2022 CME/COMEX copper vs short 2023 CME/COMEX copper at tonight's close, expecting steeper backwardation. Feature Government-mandated reductions of up to 30% in steel mill operations for the rest of the year in China's Tangshan steel hub to reduce pollution will tighten an already-tight market responding to a construction and infrastructure boom (Chart 2). This boom triggered a surge in steel prices, and, perforce, in iron ore prices (Chart 3). As it has in the past, this sets the stage for the next leg of copper's bull run. Chart of the WeekSurging Steel Presages Stronger Copper Prices In our modeling, we have found a strong relationship between steel prices, particularly for reinforcing bar (rebar), and copper prices, as can be seen in the Chart of the Week. Steel goes into building and infrastructure projects at the front end (in the concrete that is reinforced by steel and in rolled coil products), and then copper goes into the completed project (in the form of wires or pipes). Chart 2Copper Bull Market Will Continue In addition to the building and construction boom, continued gains in manufacturing will provide a tailwind for copper prices, which will be augmented by the global recovery in activity 2H21. Chart 4 shows the relationship between nominal GDP levels and copper prices. What's important here is economic growth in Asia (including China) and ex-Asia is, unsurprisingly, cointegrated with copper prices – i.e., economic growth and industrial commodities share a long-term equilibrium, which explains their co-movement. Chart 3Steel Boom Lifts Iron Ore Prices Media reports tend to focus on the effects of Chinese government spending as a share of GDP – e.g., total social financing relative to GDP – to the exclusion of the economic, particularly when trying to explain commodity price movements. To the extent the Chinese government is successful in further expanding the private sector – on the goods and services sides – organic economic growth will become even more important in explaining Chinese commodity demand. Chart 4Global Economic Grwoth Will Boost Copper Prices In our copper modeling, we find copper prices to be cointegrated with nominal Chinese GDP, EM Asian GDP and EM ex-Asian GDP, along with steel and iron ore prices, which, from a pure economics point of view, is what would be expected. On the other hand, there is no cointegration – i.e., no economic co-movement or a shared trend – between these industrial commodity prices and total social financing as a percent of nominal China GDP. These models allow us to avoid spurious relationships, which offer no help in explaining or forecasting these copper prices. Chart 5Iron Ore, Copper Demand Will Lift With The "Green Energy" Buildout Chart 6Renewables Dominate Incremental New Generation Longer term, as we have written in past research reports, the transition to a low-carbon energy mix favoring distributed renewable electricity generation, more resilient grids and electric vehicles (EVs) will be a major source of demand growth for bulks like iron ore and steel, and base metals, particularly copper (Chart 5).1 Already, renewable generation represents the highest-growth segment of incremental power generation being added to the global grid (Chart 6). Copper Supply Growth Requires Higher Prices Copper supply will have a difficult time accommodating demand in the short term (to end-2022) when, for the most part, the buildout in renewables and EVs will only be getting started. This means that over the medium (to end-2025) and the long terms (2050) significant new supply will have to be developed to meet demand. In the short term, the supply side of refined copper – particularly the semi-refined form of the metal smelters purify into a useable input for manufactured products (condensates) – is running extremely low, as can be seen in the longer-term collapse of Treatment Charges and Refining Charges (TC/RC) at Chinese smelters (Chart 7). At ~ $22/MT last week, these charges were the lowest since the benchmark TC/RC index tracking these charges in China was launched in 2013, according to reuters.com.2 Chart 7Copper TCRCs Fall As Supplies Fall, Pushing Prices Higher The copper supply story also can be seen in Chart 8, which converts annual supply and demand into balances, which will be mediated by the storage market. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) estimates mine output again registered flat year-on-year growth last year, while refined copper supplies were up a scant 1.5% y/y. Chart 8Physical Deficits Will Draw Copper Stocks... Consumption was up 2.2%, according to the ICSG's estimates, which expects a physical deficit this year of 456k MT, after adjusting for Chinese bonded warehouse stocks. This will mark the fourth year in a row the copper market has been in a physical deficit, which, since 2017, has averaged 414k MT. The net result of this means inventories will once again be relied on to fill in supply gaps, and global stockpiles, which are down ~25% y/y, and will continue to fall (Chart 9). With mining capex weak and copper ore quality falling, higher prices will be required to incentivize significant new investment in production (Chart 10). However, the lead time on these projects is five years in the best of circumstances, which means miners have to get projects sanctioned with final investment decisions made in the near future (Chart 11). Chart 9...Which After Four Years Of Physical Deficits Are Low Chart 10Higher Copper Prices Required To Reverse Weak Capex, Falling Ore Quality Chart 11Falling Lead Times To Bring New Mines Online, But Time Is Short Investment Implications Our focus on copper is driven by the simple fact that it spans all renewable technologies and will be critical for EVs as well, particularly if there is widespread adoption of this technology (Chart 12). We continue to expect copper supply challenges across the short-, medium- and long-term investment horizons. To cover the short term, we recommended going long December 2021 copper on 10 September 2020, and this position is up 39.2%. To cover the longer term, we are long the S&P Global GSCI commodity index and the iShares GSCI Commodity Dynamic Roll Strategy ETF (COMT), recommended 7 December 2017 and 12 March 2021 , respectively, which are down 2.3% and 0.8%. Chart 12Widespread EV Uptake Will Create All New Copper Demand At tonight's close, we will cover the medium-term opportunity of the copper supply-demand story developed above by getting long the 2022 CME/COMEX copper futures strip and short 2023 CME/COMEX copper futures strip, given our expectation the continued tightening of the market will force inventories to draw, leading to a steeper backwardation in the copper forward curve. The principal risks to our short-, medium- and long-term positions above are a global failure to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, which, we believe is a short-term risk. Second among the risks to these positions is a large release of strategic copper concentrate reserves held by China's State Reserve Bureau (aka, the State Bureau of Minerial Reserves). In the case of the latter risk, the actual holdings of the Bureau are unknown, but are believed to be in the neighborhood of 2mm MT.3 Bottom Line: We remain bullish industrial commodities, particularly copper. Robert P. Ryan Chief Commodity & Energy Strategist rryan@bcaresearch.com   Commodities Round-Up Energy: Bullish Texas is expected to add 10 GW of utility-scale solar power by the end of 2022, according to the US EIA. Texas entered the solar market in a big way in 2020, installing 2.5 GW of capacity. The EIA expects The Great State to add ~ 5GW per year in the next two years, which would take total solar capacity to just under 15 GW. Roughly 30% of this new capacity is expected to be built in the Permian Basin, home to the most prolific oil field in the US. By comparison, the leading producer of solar power in the US, California, will add 3.2 GW of new solar capacity, according to the EIA (Chart 13). To end-2022, roughly one-third of total new solar generation in the will be added in Texas, which already is the leading wind-powered generator in the country. Wind availability is highest during the nighttime hours, while solar is most abundant during the mid-day period. Precious Metals: Bullish Palladium prices, trading ~ $2,876/oz on Wednesday, surpassed their previous record of $2,875.50/oz set in February 2020 and are closing in on $3,000/oz, as supply expectations continue to be lowered by Russian metals producer Nornickel, the largest palladium producer in the world (Chart 14). Earlier this week, the company updated earlier guidance and now expects mine output to be down as much as 20% this year in its copper, nickel and palladium operations, due to flooding in its mines. Palladium is used as a catalyst in gasoline-powered automobiles, sales of which are expected to rebound as the world emerges from COVID-19-induced demand destruction and a computer-chip shortage that has limited new automobile supply. In addition, production of platinum-group metals (PGMs) is being hampered by unreliable power supply in South Africa, which has forced the national utility suppling most of the state's power (> 90%) to revert to load-shedding schemes to conserve power. We remain long palladium, after recommending a long position in the metal 23 April 2020; the position is up 35.6%. Chart 13 Chart 14     Footnotes 1     Please see, e.g., Renewables, China's FYP Underpin Metals Demand, which we published 26 November 2020.  It is available at ces.bcaresearch.com.   2     Please see RPT-COLUMN-Copper smelter terms at rock bottom as mine squeeze hits: Andy Home published by reuters.com 14 April 2021.  The report notes direct transactions between miners and smelters were reported as low as $10/MT, in a sign of just how tight the physical supply side of the copper market is at present. 3    Please see Column: Supercycle or China cycle? Funds wait for Dr Copper's call, published by reuters.com 20 April 2021.    Investment Views and Themes Recommendations Strategic Recommendations Tactical Trades Commodity Prices and Plays Reference Table Trades Closed in 2021 Summary of Closed Trades

On Tuesday, our 5% rolling stop on the long “Back-To-Work”/short “COIVD-19 Winners” baskets pair trade was triggered. We are obeying the stop and closing the trade for another 20.5% return on top of the previous 21.5%, which brings the total return to 42% in under 9 months. While we are not changing our 2021 overlapping theme of economic reopening that underpinned this trade, we are no longer content with the risk/reward tradeoff, and from a risk management portfolio perspective choose to obey our stop and step aside. Granted, if the share price ratio goes through a meaningful correction catalyzed by the dormant US 10-year Treasury yield, we will reopen this trade once again looking for a new leg higher. Bottom Line: Close the long “Back-To-Work”/short “COIVD-19 Winners” baskets pair trade for a gain of 20.5%, since the second inception, but stay tuned.  

While the Fed remains committed to ZIRP for the remainder of the year, already FOMC members started talking about talking about tapering. The next logical step is for tapering to become reality as the year draws to a close or early in 2022. Peering above the 49th parallel, the BoC yesterday opted to taper bond purchases, albeit slightly, and may offer a glimpse of what may also take root in the US in the not too distant future. True, tapering is a good thing as the Central Bank’s (CB) confidence is high that the economy is on a solid footing and no longer needs additional CB support, however if history is an accurate guide, equity investors will have to digest the tapering news once it becomes reality. The chart shows G4 CB liquidity as a 26-week change in the asset side of the balance sheet, and given that some of this excess liquidity seeps over to the US equity market, its withdrawal will likely prove tumultuous. Bottom Line: Near-term caution is warranted on the prospects of the broad equity market that remains fully valued. Please see the next US equity sector Insight.

Special Report

Highlights EM banks will underperform their DM peers in the next six months due to worsening relative NPL dynamics and shrinking net interest margins. EM banks will either continue experiencing rising NPLs and moribund loan demand due to restrictive lending rates or will have to reduce their lending rates, which will considerably shrink their net interest margins. In both scenarios, EM bank profits will be damaged. Besides, EM is facing an unfriendly macro cocktail of booming US growth and a slowing China. This could cause a capital exodus from EM in the coming months depressing EM currencies and precluding many central banks from cutting interest rates proactively. Feature Chart 1EM vs. DM Banks: More Underperformance Ahead We recommend initiating the short EM banks / long DM banks strategy. There has been a major technical breakdown in EM share prices versus DM peers (Chart 1). When discussing EM banks for the purpose of macro analysis, we separate Chinese, Korean and Taiwanese banks from their EM peers. The basis is that the banking systems in China, Korea and Taiwan1 face different cyclical and structural outlooks than in the rest of EM. Bank assets-to-GDP ratios are much more elevated and the monetary and fiscal policies have more flexibility in China, Korea and Taiwan than in EM. Chart 2Fiscal Thrust In EM And DM Reason #1: Higher NPLs In EM Than DM As a result of the pandemic lockdowns, bank NPLs have surged both in EM and DM. However, DM banks have begun to pare down the NPL provisions they had built over the past year. By contrast, NPLs in EM economies will linger due to persisting economic weakness. In fact, EM banks might need to boost their NPL provisions, further eroding their profits. DM policymakers have provided much more fiscal support to their economies than the governments in EM (ex-China, Korea and Taiwan). The fiscal thrust in these EM economies will be negative in 2021 while it is expected to be positive in the US and neutral in the euro area (Chart 2). Chart 3 shows the fiscal thrust across individual EM economies. The fiscal thrusts in Russia and Brazil are the most negative. In EM (ex-China, Korea, Taiwan), the prime lending rates have declined but are still high both in nominal terms (around 10%) and in real terms (6.5%) (Chart 4, top and middle panels). In our opinion, these levels of prime lending rates are restrictive for EM economies and will both inhibit loan demand and undermine debtors’ ability to service debt. Consistently, bank loan growth remains very muted in EM (ex-China, Korea, Taiwan) (Chart 4, bottom panel). Chart 32021 Fiscal Thrust In Individual EM Countries The pandemic is lingering in several developing countries and their vaccination efforts are trailing those of DM. Consequently, the pace and timing of a full economic recovery in EM will lag those in DM. Chart 5 illustrates that retail sales and auto purchases in EM (ex-China, Korea, Taiwan) remain lackluster. Chart 4EM Bank Lending Rates Are Restrictive Chart 5EM Ex-China, Korea And Taiwan: Domestic Demand Is Lackluster   Reason #2: Net Interest Margin Squeeze For EM Banks EM banks are facing a dilemma. They have a choice between: continuing to experience rising NPLs and moribund loan demand due to restrictive lending rates, which will also undermine bank profits; and/or significantly reducing their lending rates to spur new lending and to help debtors service their loans. In such a case, their net interest margins and profits will shrink. In a nutshell, the fact that borrowers are struggling despite lending rates being much lower than they have been in the past boils down to underlying productivity and return on capital. Both have downshifted considerably in EM (ex-China, Korea, Taiwan) economies. This was true before the pandemic erupted and is also true at present. Chart 6EM Banks: Net Interest Margin And EPS In brief, the only way for EM banks to avoid escalating NPLs is to reduce lending rates. Yet, the latter will erode their net interest margins and depress their profits. Chart 6 demonstrates that net interest rate margins have been an important driver of banks’ EPS growth and they currently point to weaker bank earnings. Notably, there is little room for EM (ex-China, Korea, Taiwan) central banks to cut their policy/short rates. Doing so could trigger a weakness in their currencies at a time when US growth is booming, and US bond yields are under upward pressure. Overall, any decline in prime lending rates will produce a net interest margin squeeze for banks in EM (ex-China, Korea, Taiwan). In China, authorities have been clear that they expect banks to reduce their lending rates for SMEs even though the central bank does not plan on cutting short-term rates. Such pressure on mainland banks will intensify as growth slows in H2 2021. Hence, Chinese banks are also experiencing a net interest margin contraction. Reason #3: An Unfriendly Macro Cocktail For EM Our major global theme for 2021 is an economic boom in the US and a slowdown in China. Such a global macro dynamic warrants a rebound in the US dollar and a pullback in commodities prices. The US economy will be booming in H2 2021 facilitated by the general reopening of the economy, massive fiscal stimulus, rising employment and income growth as well as the release of pent-up demand for services. The Chinese economy is about to decelerate, as foretold by the rollover in money and credit impulses (Chart 7). China’s slowdown will lead to a decline in commodities prices and EM currencies (Chart 8). Chart 7China Is Set To Slow Down Chart 8Commodities And EM Currencies Are At Risk   Finally, one of the best leading indicators for EM EPS has been China’s narrow money growth. Chart 9 demonstrates that the latest rollover in Chinese narrow money growth heralds a slowdown in EM EPS later this year. Chart 9China's Narrow Money Heralds EM EPS Slowdown In H2 EM’s business cycle is very sensitive to China’s growth because many emerging economies sell to China as much if not more than to the US. An impending slowdown in China will cause a meaningful setback in commodities prices and will depress terms of trade for many EM (ex-China, Korea, Taiwan) economies. In turn, a booming US economy will herald higher US bond yields. Together, these dynamics will likely precipitate a rebound in the US dollar. In sum, such a macro cocktail could cause a capital exodus from EM in the coming months, depressing EM currencies and precluding many central banks from cutting interest rates proactively. As a result, EM local currency bond yields will not fall much, especially in vulnerable EM countries. Chart 10EM Ex-China, Korea And Taiwan: Banks Perform Poorly When Local Yields Rise Chart 10 demonstrates that the rise in EM local currency yields (shown inverted on the chart) is typically negative for EM (ex-China, Korea, Taiwan) bank stocks. This is opposite to the dynamics in the US and in Europe where bank share prices rally when bond yields rise. Reason #4: Chinese Bank Stocks Remain A Value Trap Market cap of Chinese bank stocks represents 25% of the MSCI EM bank index. Hence, the performance of Chinese bank share prices contributes significantly to the MSCI EM bank stock index. Chinese commercial banks’ assets have expanded 1.5-fold since early 2009 (Chart 11). The overwhelming part of this expansion has been driven by loan origination, purchases of corporate bonds and various claims on local governments and their affiliated vehicles.  We have written often and at length that there is no link between trends in bank assets and national or household savings. Critically, banks do not intermediate deposits into loans or savings into credit. This holds true in all countries around the world. Following such an epic credit boom in China since 2009, one would typically expect creditors in general and banks in particular to undertake a profound cleansing of their balance sheets, and for the amounts involved to be colossal. However, Chinese banks have not yet done this on a meaningful scale. We estimate that banks have disposed – written-off and sold – RMB 9.4 trillion in loans since 2012, which is equivalent to 6.6% of all loans originated since January 2009 (when the credit boom commenced). In addition, banks’ NPL provisions remain very low at 3.4% of their loan book. In a nutshell, Chinese banks have not yet sufficiently cleansed their balance sheets and carry a lot of non-recognized bad loans/assets. Investors doubt the quality of the banks’ books. As a result, Chinese banks’ share prices have been in limbo over the last ten years (Chart 12, top panel). Chart 11Chinese Bank Assets: An Epic Boom Chart 12Bank Stocks Have Been In Limbo In China, Japan, Korea And Taiwan   Provided that this issue of mainland bank asset quality is well known, the government will not allow a full-fledged banking crisis. However, authorities will also not recapitalize banks without current shareholders experiencing losses. Overall, Chinese bank share prices might share the fate of Japanese bank stocks. The latter has been in a secular bear market even though Japan has never had an acute credit crisis (Chart 12, second panel). In a nutshell, Korean and Taiwanese bank share prices have also delivered very poor returns over the past 20 years, even though these banks have not had an acute crisis and the credit-to-GDP ratios in these economies have been rising (Chart 12, third and fourth panels). The upshot is that a rising credit penetration is not sufficient to produce value for bank shareholders. The quality of credit assets, profit margins and the starting points of both equity valuation and bank capital adequacy matter for forward returns on bank stocks. A Word On Bank Stock Valuations Chart 13EM Ex-China, Korea And Taiwan: Banks Price-To-Book Value Ratio Even though Chinese bank stocks trade at very low multiples – the price-to-book value (PBV) ratio is presently 0.6, the latter represents a value trap. For comparison, the PBV ratio is 0.5 in Korea and 1.2 in Taiwan. Excluding China, Korea and Taiwan, the EM bank PBV ratio is well below its historical mean (Chart 13). However, this aggregate conceals the wide disparity among EM banks. Chart 14 plots banks’ return on equity (RoE) over the past 12 months on the X-axis and their PBV ratio on the Y-axis. There is a clear positive correlation between RoE and the PBV ratio.   Chart 14A Comparative Valuation Matrix For Global Bank Stocks Combining bank equity valuations and country macro fundamentals, within the EM bank space we favor banks in India, Mexico, Korea, the Czech Republic, Russia (barring a major military conflict in Ukraine) and Singapore. On the other hand, the most vulnerable are bank share prices in Brazil, Peru, Turkey, the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia. Concerning Chinese banks, we continue advocating the long large banks/short small and medium bank stocks strategy. The rationale is that a lot of bad news is already discounted in large bank stocks and little in listed small and medium bank stocks. In particular, the PBV ratio is 0.7 for large banks and 1.3 for small and medium banks. More so than large banks, small and medium banks are at risk from the new asset management regulation that will be implemented by the end of this year. Investment Recommendations We initiate a short EM banks / long DM banks position. This is a medium-term strategy for the next six months. This strategy is consistent with our tactical underweight in EM stocks versus DM stocks that we recommended on March 25. From a structural perspective, we continue recommending a neutral allocation to EM within a global equity portfolio. Today we are also publishing a report on India that highlights near-term downside risks to this bourse due to surging COVID-19 cases. Worryingly, the number of new cases in India might stay exceptionally high for a while due to several potential super-spreader events. As a result, we recommend that asset allocators with less tolerance for volatility tactically downgrade India to neutral in an EM equity portfolio. Long-term investors should continue overweighting the Indian bourse. Chart 15Move Peruvian Stocks From Neutral To Underweight Finally, Peruvian bank stocks have been plunging on the heels of left-wing candidate Pedro Castillo lead in the presidential electionspolls ahead of the second round on June 6th. Chart 15 shows that surging NPLs (shown inverted) herald more downside in bank share prices. Consequently, in the context of political uncertainty, rising NPLs and a potential decline in metal prices, we are downgrading Peruvian equities from neutral to underweight. Arthur Budaghyan Chief Emerging Markets Strategist arthurb@bcaresearch.com   Footnotes 1 We refer to Taiwan (Province of China) herein in the report as Taiwan.   Equities Recommendations Currencies, Credit And Fixed-Income Recommendations

In lieu of next week’s strategy report, I will be presenting the first Counterpoint webcast titled ‘Mega-Themes, Coming Shocks, And Top Trades’. I hope you can join. Highlights Standard economic theory assumes that money is perfectly fungible. But in practice, money is not fungible, because people attach different emotions to their income and savings mental accounts. This is known as ‘mental accounting bias.’ Mental accounting bias means that we are more likely to use the massive stockpile of savings accumulated during the pandemic to pay down debt than to spend. Mental accounting bias also means that we are overpaying for high-yielding equities. Long-term investors should avoid banks, and they should avoid ‘value.’ Correctly calculated, the equity risk premium is now almost non-existent. US long-term bond yields have much more scope to move down than to move up. Fractal trade shortlist: equities versus bonds, PKR, and New Zealand equities. Feature Chart of the WeekConsumption Is Explained By Wages... Chart of the Week...Not By Stimulus Checks Many economists predict that, once economies fully reopen, the massive stockpile of household savings accumulated during the pandemic will unleash a tsunami of household spending. But economists are not the right people to make this prediction. The answer to whether households will, or will not, spend their stockpile of accumulated savings does not fall into the realm of Economics. It falls into the realm of Psychology. Whether We Spend Money Depends On Which ‘Mental Account’ It Occupies In A Major Anomaly In The Bond Market we pointed out that the propensity to spend out of income is high, but the propensity to spend out of wealth is low. Meaning that whether unspent income gets spent depends on whether households categorise it as additional income or additional wealth. This raised a follow-up question. How can the decision to spend money depend on whether someone categorises it as income or wealth? The answer comes from Psychology, and a phenomenon known as ‘mental accounting bias.’ Nobel Laureate psychologist Daniel Kahneman points out that we categorise our money into different accounts, which are sometimes physical, sometimes only mental – and that there is a clear hierarchy in our willingness to draw on these accounts for spending. There is a clear hierarchy in our willingness to spend from our ‘mental accounts’. At the top of the hierarchy comes our monthly wage check, followed by the money in our current (checking) account. These ‘income’ accounts we are willing to spend. Further down the hierarchy comes our savings account and our investment portfolio. These ‘savings’ or ‘wealth’ accounts we are unwilling to spend. Standard economic theory assumes that money is perfectly fungible, so that a pound in a current account is no different to a pound in a savings account. But in practice, money is not fungible, because people attach different emotions to their income and savings mental accounts. When we move money from our wages or our current account into our savings account, our willingness to spend it collapses. This explains why consumption closely tracks the wages that dominate our income mental account, but has no meaningful connection with stimulus checks which largely end up in our savings mental account (Chart of the Week and Chart I-2). Chart I-2Stimulus Checks Had No Meaningful Impact On Consumption Trends Yet while we are unwilling to spend our savings mental account, we are willing to pay down debt with it. Indeed, realising this emotional connection between our savings and our debt, many lenders offer mortgages which ‘offset’ a savings account against the mortgage debt. Pulling all of this together, the stockpile of household savings accumulated during the pandemic is unlikely to boost consumption trends. More likely, it will be used to reduce household debt. In which case, part of the recent rise in public debt will just end up paying down private debt, as happened in Japan during the 1990s (Chart I-3). Chart I-3In Japan, Public Debt Ended Up Paying Down Private Debt This spells trouble for bank asset growth. ‘Value’ Offers No Value Mental accounting bias also explains the dominant phenomenon in the financial markets of recent years – the so-called ‘search for yield’. At first glance, the search for yield makes sense, but on deeper thought the distinction between yield and capital appreciation is irrational. Just like income and wealth, the money that comes from an investment’s yield and the money that comes from its capital appreciation is perfectly fungible (assuming am equal tax treatment). Yet, in practice, many investors put yield and capital appreciation into separate mental accounts, categorising an investment’s yield as spending money, and its capital as saving money. Hence, those investors – say retirees – who want their assets to generate money for their spending mental account have an irrational bias towards investments that generate yield. Whereas those investors that want their assets to boost their saving mental account have a bias towards investments that generate capital growth. To reiterate, given that money is perfectly fungible, these mental accounts are irrational.  Under normal circumstances, these irrational biases are not a problem because there are enough investments available for both the spending and the saving mental accounts. But in recent years, the assets that would normally generate the safe income for the spending account – cash and government bonds – are no longer doing so. Hence, in the ensuing stampede for yield, income fixated investors have suffered a dangerous tunnel vision. By fixating on an equity’s yield rather than on its prospective total return, yield seeking investors are overpaying for high-yielding equities, and thereby sacrificing their long-term wealth. By fixating on an equity’s yield rather than on its prospective total return, investors are overpaying for high-yielding equities. Case in point. The 8 percent forward earnings yield on global financials appears to offer considerably more value than the 5 percent on healthcare and the 3.5 percent on technology. But what really matters is how that forward earnings yield translates into prospective total return. On this basis, the apparent value in financials turns out to be a mirage. Using the post financial crisis relationship between forward earnings yield and prospective return, high-yielding financials were, until very recently, priced to deliver a lower return than low-yielding technology. And financials are still priced to deliver a lower return than lower-yielding healthcare. To deliver the same long-term return as healthcare, the valuation of financials would have to decline by 20 percent (Chart I-4 - Chart I-6). Chart I-4Financials' 8 Percent Earnings Yield = A 2 Percent Prospective Return Chart I-5Healthcare's 5 Percent Earnings Yield = An 8 Percent Prospective Return Chart I-6Tech Is Expensive Therefore, mental accounting bias is a double whammy for banks. It spells trouble for bank asset growth, and it makes investors overpay for high-yielding equities. This creates the ultimate paradox of investment. The defining feature of ‘value’ is that it offers no value! Long-term investors should avoid banks, and they should avoid value. US Bond Yields Have More Scope To Move Down Than Up The foregoing analysis also carries important implications on the correct approach to value equities, and specifically the equity risk premium – meaning, the prospective excess return on equities versus high-quality bonds. The common incorrect approach is to take the forward earnings yield on equities and subtract the 10-year bond yield. Using a US forward earnings yield of 4.5 percent, this would suggest the equity risk premium is a comfortable 3 percent versus the nominal bond yield of 1.5 percent. Or a very comfortable 5.5 percent versus the real bond yield of -1 percent. The glaring error with this approach is that it is subtracting apples from oranges. The 10-year bond yield is the return you will receive from the bond over the next 10 years. But as you have just seen, the forward earnings yield is not the return you will receive from equities over the next 10 years. To subtract apples from apples we must first translate the forward earnings yield into a prospective 10-year total return. The current translation turns out to be a 2 percent nominal return (Chart I-7 - Chart I-8) or a 0 percent real return (Chart I-9 - Chart I-10). Comparing these with the nominal or real bond yields, we find that the equity risk premium is almost non-existent. Chart I-7Convert The Earnings Yield Into A Prospective Nominal Return... Chart I-8…To Find That The Equity Risk Premium Is Almost Non-Existent Chart I-9Convert The Earnings Yield Into A Prospective Real Return... Chart I-10...To Find That The Equity Risk Premium Is Almost Non-Existent The almost non-existent equity risk premium means that equities are richly valued, and that this rich valuation is contingent on bond yields not rising significantly. Moreover, it is not just equities that are richly valued. As we pointed out in The Road To Inflation Ends At Deflation the valuation of $300 trillion of global real estate is also highly contingent on bond yields not rising significantly. Equities are richly valued, and this rich valuation is contingent on bond yields not rising significantly. We conclude that, from current levels, US long-term bond yields have much more scope to move down than to move up. Candidates For Countertrend Reversal The strong rally in equities versus bonds since the pandemic low has reached a point of fractal fragility like that seen at the end of the 2013 bull run and the end of the early 2020 bear run (Chart I-11). As such, the current rally is due a breather. Chart I-11The Rally In Equities Versus Bonds Is Due A Breather In the Asia Pacific region, we note that the recent strong performance of the Pakistan rupee is susceptible to a countertrend sell-off (Chart I-12). Chart I-12Underweight The PKR Lastly, the ultra-defensive New Zealand stock market has massively underperformed over the past year. But fragility on both its 130-day and 65-day fractal structures suggests that it is ripe for a countertrend outperformance (Chart I-13). Chart I-13Overweight New Zealand Accordingly, this week’s recommendation is to overweight New Zealand versus the world, setting the profit target and symmetrical stop-loss at 4 percent.   Dhaval Joshi Chief Strategist dhaval@bcaresearch.com Fractal Trading System Fractal Trades 6-Month Recommendations Structural Recommendations Closed Fractal Trades Closed Trades Asset Performance Equity Market Performance   Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-1Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields - ##br##Euro Area Chart II-2Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields - ##br##Europe Ex Euro Area Chart II-3Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields - ##br##Asia Chart II-4Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields - ##br##Other Developed   Indicators To Watch - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-5Indicators To Watch - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-6Indicators To Watch - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-7Indicators To Watch - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-8Indicators To Watch - Interest Rate Expectations    

Overweight The niche S&P containers & packaging index is often flying below investors’ radars, but an upbeat global macro picture suggests that an overweight stance is warranted. These neglected materials stocks are a play on rising pricing power due to insatiable demand for containerboard and other packaging materials that the pandemic-driven boom in e-commerce has only exacerbated. Already, intermodal rail carloads that gauge the retail industry’s demand and go toe-to-toe with container and packaging manufacturers’ profits, argue for meaningful upside from current levels (middle panel). Similarly, the CASS freight index that tracks the health of different US freight industries is surging and confirms that relative profits will rebound in the back half of the year (bottom panel). Sector-level operating data are also firming. As we showed in this Monday’s Strategy Report, there is a steep divergence between containers & packaging producer prices and employment with the former outpacing the latter. The implication is that a larger fraction of revenues will reach the bottom line and push relative share prices higher. Bottom Line: We reiterate our overweight stance in the S&P containers & packaging index. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5CONP– WRK, SEE, IP, AVY, BLL, PKG, AMCR. ​​​​​​​

US equity market euphoria got a jab in the arm yesterday and started to test the resolve of late-comers to the rally. While the self-reinforcing cycle of ultra loose financial conditions along with easy fiscal and monetary policies will continue to underpin markets on a cyclical time horizon, any let up in the near-term in any of these buoyant macro forces can have far reaching effects, especially given lofty valuations and rising complacency. Thus, we remain cautious in the short-term. Not only is this market in a desperate need of a breather given that it once again sits two standard deviations above the 20-month moving average (top panel) – a technical signal that allowed us to caution clients of extreme overbought conditions right before the September 2nd correction – but also a number of other factors are waving yellow flags. First, the US smart money flow index is revealing the fragility hidden beneath the SPX surface. The divergence between this index and the S&P 500 is reminiscent of the 2018 “Volmageddon” correction (third panel). Second, the total US equity call / put ratio is significantly diverging with equity prices, likely as a result of both smart money hedging their longs (second panel) and retail call buying frenzy going on a hiatus. Finally, our US Equity Internal Dynamics Indicator also ticked down of late cementing the argument that, for now, equities are fully priced as we posited in yesterday’s Strategy Report where we updated our SPX dividend discount model (bottom panel). Bottom Line: While we remain cyclically bullish, any mishaps on China’s and/or the Fed’s front will likely serve as a catalyst for a near-term correction.  

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Rising demand for packaging materials, increasing industry pricing power along with compelling relative valuations signal that ignored containers and packaging stocks are a hidden gem within the S&P materials sector. Stay overweight. Softening industry activity coupled with an absence of an export relief valve at a time when the economy is on track to fire on all cylinders, compel us to put the S&P soft drinks index on our downgrade watch list.            Recent Changes There are no changes to our portfolio this week. Table 1 Feature Equity market euphoria has taken over with the SPX vaulting to fresh all-time highs on numerous occasions over the past two weeks. An easy Fed and ultra-loose fiscal policies remain the key macro drivers of this bull market. While the economy is on track to boom in 2021, leading economic indicators will soon be running into trouble and will have to come off the boil. The ISM manufacturing and services readings are at nose bleed levels, raising some eyebrows of how much further they can rise (Chart 1). The looming $2.4tn infrastructure bill following on the heels of the $900bn and $1.9tn fiscal easing packages since late-December are also likely fully reflected in the exuberant equity prices. As we showed two weeks ago, already more than two Fed hikes are priced in the OIS market over the next 24 months, and four by the end of 2023 (Chart 2)! Chart 1As Good As It Gets Chart 2Explaining US Dollar Strength S&P 500 twelve-month and five-year forward EPS estimates have crested and so have net earnings revisions (Chart 3). The SPX’s annual rate of change cannot go any higher for the remainder of the year (second panel, Chart 1) and breadth is as good as it gets with both SPX percent of stocks trading above their 50 and 200 day moving averages closing in on 100% (Chart 4).   Chart 3Cresting Euphoria? Chart 4Extended Breadth? The VIX recently melted below 16, junk yields hit all-time lows and the high-yield option adjusted spread multi-year lows (Chart 5). With regard to market internals, looking underneath the SPX hood is revealing. We recently booked handsome gains of 17% in our cyclicals/defensives portfolio bent and moved to the sidelines. This ratio has since ticked down, and so has the small/large ratio. As a reminder, we cemented gains north of 16% early in the year on the size bias and have been neutral since January 12, 2021. Even our long “Back-To-Work”/short “COVID-19 Winners” pair trade has hit a wall and we recently set a 5% rolling stop in order to protect profits of over 20% since our second inception in early February (Chart 6). Chart 5Complacency Reigns Supreme Chart 6Running Out Of Steam Finally, a number of key macro indicators we track are keeping us alert and make us uneasy with the recent stampede into stocks. EURUSD was the first to peak early in January, then gold bullion stalled and finally the South Korean Kospi index peaked. Tack on the recent relative EM stock market underperformance and the risk is that these growth hypersensitive indicators are sniffing out some trouble, potentially an ex-US economic soft-patch. Thus, some caution is warranted until all of these key indicators break out of their recent funk (Charts 7 & 8). Chart 7Three Macro Assets To Closely Monitor Chart 8Running Out Of Stimulus This week we update our SPX dividend discount model (DDM) for the fifth year running, along with the SPX EPS/multiple sensitivity analysis and the SPX forward equity risk premium (ERP). All three ways point to an SPX fair value near 4,050. As a reminder, we have been, and remain, very conservative in our DDM assumptions. Again this year we assume that no buybacks will occur, a long held assumption of ours, i.e. we pencil in a steady divisor in the coming five-year time frame. 2026 is our terminal year when dividend growth settles at 6.6%, 60bps below the long-term average (bottom panel, Chart 9). Our 8.2% discount rate mirrors the corporate junk bond yield historical average.  First off, remarkably, the SPX full year 2020 dividend went up 4 cents/share on a year-over-year basis, and blew out even the most optimistic estimates we had last April! While financials chopped their dividends following the Fed’s guidance, the S&P energy sector maintained their dividends as we predicted last spring. Impressively, we posited that XOM and CVX would sustain their dividend aristocrats status (i.e. minimum of 25 consecutive years of rising dividend payouts), which was controversial at the time, and subsequently these two US oil majors diverged from their European peers. Moreover, while a lot of pundits used the GFC as a close parallel, the 9/11 accelerated recession proved the most accurate historical episode from a dividend perspective (bottom panel, Chart 9), and we would not be surprised if a jump in dividend growth similar to the post 9/11 recession takes root. Chart 9Resilient SPX Dividends Continuing from last year, this year we use two different dividend growth approaches: our own estimates and alternatively the S&P 500 dividend futures derived growth. Tables 2 & 3 summarize the results. Table 2SPX Dividend Discount Model: Using USES Dividend Growth Assumptions Table 3SPX Dividend Discount Model: Using S&P Dividend Futures Growth Assumptions Table 4SPX EPS & Multiple Sensitivity Our own dividend growth estimates result in an SPX 4,050 fair value target (Table 2). Our assumptions are not as pessimistic as the SPX dividend futures, which result in an SPX 2,900 fair value (Table 3, please click here if you would like to receive our DDM and insert your own assumptions). Table 5Forward Equity Risk Premium Analysis In order to complement our SPX 4,050 fair value estimate, Tables 4 & 5 highlight our sensitivity analysis and forward ERP fair value estimates. Our starting point is the Street’s $203.1 EPS estimate for calendar 2022 and the backed out SPX forward P/E of 20.3. Similarly, for the forward ERP analysis we use the sell-side’s 2022 EPS estimate along with a forward 10-year US Treasury yield of 2% and an equilibrium ERP near 300bps on the back of: the Fed’s commitment to stay extremely accommodative, melting volatility, collapsing policy uncertainty and soaring ISM manufacturing (Charts 10 & 11). Chart 10Booming Economy… Chart 11…Translates Into Melting ERP This dual analysis corroborates the SPX DDM model’s 4,050 fair value and suggests that the SPX is fully valued at the current juncture, leaving little, if any, wiggle room for any mishaps. Our two key macro risks for the remainder of the year remain China’s looming slowdown and the Fed’s tapering, warning that some near-term caution is warranted. This week we update a niche materials subsector and set a downgrade on a consumer staples consumer goods subgroup. Stick With Containers And Packaging Containers and packaging stocks now comprise roughly 13% of the S&P materials index, represent a niche group within a niche sector and were we not already overweight we would not hesitate to commit capital to this index. In a nutshell, Chart 12 captures the attractiveness of container and packaging stocks. These neglected materials stocks are a play on rising pricing power due to insatiable demand for containerboard and other packaging materials. Tack on executives cost discipline and a profit margin expansion story will surprise analysts and investors alike and serve as a catalyst for a durable rerating phase (bottom panel, Chart 12). In more detail, packaged food exports coupled with consumer outlays on food and beverages are soaring. Expanding food manufacturing shipments corroborate this upbeat demand backdrop and signal that the path of least resistance is higher for ultra-pessimistic sell-side analysts’ top and bottom line growth estimates (Chart 13). Chart 12What’s Not To Like? Chart 13Upbeat Demand… Booming intermodal rail carloads gauging the retail industry’s demand also underpin container and packaging manufacturers’ profits (middle panel, Chart 14). Similarly the CASS freight index that tracks the health of different US freight industries is surging and confirms that relative profits will rebound in the back half of the year (bottom panel, Chart 14). Beyond the vigorous recovery in food manufacturing as per the Fed’s latest IP release that is a boon for packaging producers (bottom panel, Chart 15), COVID-19 ramifications also represent a rising source of demand for the industry. COVID-19 has served as an accelerant to the ongoing trend of non-store retail sales grabbing an ever increasing share of total retail sales. As internet sales garner a larger slice of the overall pie, the implication is that demand for boxes and other packaging materials like bubble wrap is increasing at a healthy clip (second panel, Chart 15). Chart 14...Everywhere… Chart 15…One Looks Finally, from a world perspective, global export volumes have vaulted to fresh all-time highs (third panel, Chart 15) and global readings of manufacturing PMIs have reached escape velocity. The upshot is that as trade picks up steam and bottlenecks and shortages get resolved likely in the back half of 2021, export volumes will remain buoyant further boosting the allure of container and packaging equities. Netting it all out, rising demand for packaging materials, increasing industry pricing power along with compelling relative valuations signal that ignored containers and packaging stocks are a hidden gem within the S&P materials sector. Bottom Line: Stay overweight the S&P containers and packaging index. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5CONP– WRK, SEE, IP, AVY, BLL, PKG, AMCR. Put Soft Drinks On Downgrade Alert Soft drinks have taken a beating recently and we are on the lookout for an oversold bounce before we go underweight this consumer goods sub group, thus today we set a downgrade alert. While PEP’s earnings were on the bright side, leading macro indicators signal that investors will be better off to avoid this defensive consumer staples sub-index. Importantly, safe-haven soft drink stocks that tend to be very stable cash flow generators both in good times and in bad, fare worse during the early stages of an economic expansion. As growth transitions from scarcity to abundance, investors start to shed staples exposure including soft drinks (ISM shown inverted, middle panel, Chart 16). Similarly on the operating front, our Beverage Industry Activity Proxy has crested of late and warns that sinking relative profits growth estimates will likely prove accurate (bottom panel, Chart 16). True, sell-side analysts appear to have thrown in the towel on this consumer goods subgroup with both 12-month and five-year forward profit growth estimates plunging to multi-year lows (middle panel, Chart 17). But, relative valuations have followed down the path of this EPS drubbing, and the relative forward P/E ratio is trading 14% below the historical mean (bottom panel, Chart 17). Chart 16Some Yellow Flags Chart 17De-rating Blues Actual profits and revenues have made a full circle owing to the sizable jump during the pandemic induced stay-at-home bonanza, however, such a stellar growth repeat remains elusive for 2021. This is especially true if the export relief valve remains firmly closed for the industry. Already there is a sizable gap between the smart rebound in the Asian currency index, but industry exports are still trying to achieve positive year-over-year momentum (Chart 18). The relative tick down in soft drink industrial production (IP), according to the Fed’s latest IP release, corroborates our view that there is an element of stealing demand from the future due to COVID-19, and top line growth will likely surprise to the down side, especially given the soaring reading from the ISM manufacturing survey (ISM shown inverted, bottom panel, Chart 19). Chart 18Export Valve is Blocked Chart 19Roaring Economy Weighs On Defensives Nevertheless, we are patient before pulling the trigger and downgrading to a below benchmark allocation, as not only technicals are washed out, but also three additional indicators keep us on the sidelines, at least, for now: First, if there is even a mild economic relapse, the 10-year US Treasury yield will be the first to sniff it out and the recent pause in the bond market’s selloff is cause for minor concern (top panel, Chart 20). Second, industry shipments, while a lagging indicator remain resilient (middle panel, Chart 20). Finally, soft drinks pricing power is also robust and there is tentative evidence that beverage producers have been successful in passing on at least part of their rising input costs – mostly commodity related inflation (bottom panel, Chart 20). Netting it all out, softening industry activity coupled with an absence of an export relief valve at a time when the economy is on track to fire on all cylinders, compel us to put the S&P soft drinks index on our downgrade watch list. Bottom Line: Set a downgrade alert on the S&P soft drinks index. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5SOFD – KO, PEP, MNST. Chart 20But There Are Some Substantial Offsets   Anastasios Avgeriou US Equity Strategist anastasios@bcaresearch.com   Current Recommendations Current Trades Strategic (10-Year) Trade Recommendations Size And Style Views February 24, 2021 Stay neutral cyclicals over defensives January 12, 2021  Stay neutral small over large caps June 11, 2018 Long the BCA Millennial basket  The ticker symbols are: (AAPL, AMZN, UBER, HD, LEN, MSFT, NFLX, SPOT, ABNB, V). January 22, 2018 Favor value over growth