UK

UK stocks posted one of the largest positive abnormal returns (z-score) among the major financial markets we tracked in March. The MSCI UK index has gained 2% relative to Eurozone stocks since late February. However, the relative performance of UK equities…

2 years ago

Essentials

UK PMIs Lose Momentum While GBP Is Overbought

The final UK S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs for March were both revised down slightly from their flash estimates. While the report indicates that activity is still expanding, there has been a clear loss in momentum since February. The Composite…

2 years ago

FICC

The Case For Short Sterling

In this Insight, we discuss our rationale for a short sterling position.

2 years ago

Essentials

Improving UK Economic Data Surprises Reduce Odds Of Dovish BoE Surprise

The latest batch of economic data out of the UK suggests that economic conditions have recently stabilized. The flash Manufacturing PMI rose by a stronger-than-anticipated 2.4 points to a 20-month high of 49.9 in March – only a hair below the 50 boom-bust…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

Deciphering European Central Banks

Does the recent surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank augur other dovish surprises among major central banks in Europe?

2 years ago

Essentials

BoE Pivot Requires Further Slowdown In UK Inflation

The UK CPI report showed inflation eased by more than anticipated in February. Headline CPI inflation dropped from 4.0% y/y to 3.4% y/y – below consensus estimates of 3.5% y/y and the weakest increase since September 2021. Similarly, the slowdown in core…

2 years ago

Essentials

Will The Pound Continue Outperforming?

The British pound is the best performing G10 currency so far this year, gaining 0.7% vis-à-vis the US dollar. The outperformance of sterling over the past month coincides with an increase in Citigroup’s UK economic surprise index, both on an absolute basis as…

2 years ago

FICC

The Golden Rule Of Investing In UK Linkers

Special Report

In this Special Report, we introduce our UK Linkers Golden Rule – a framework to profitably trade and invest in UK inflation-linked bonds versus nominal UK gilts. The Rule is currently signaling that nominal Gilts should outperform UK linkers over the next year as UK inflation slows.

2 years ago

Essentials

Does The Outperformance of UK Small Caps Have Legs?

The FTSE 250 has been outperforming the FTSE 100 since late October 2023, with the former gaining 13.7% versus 3.9% in the case of the latter over this period.  To the extent that UK small cap stocks are more exposed to domestic economic dynamics than…

2 years ago

GeoMacro

Global Risks Rebounding (GeoRisk Update)

While 2024 will see various election risks, global geopolitical uncertainty is driven by the US election and its struggle with Russia, China, and Iran. The stock market can manage local domestic political risk. But it will correct upon a major outbreak of geopolitical uncertainty.

2 years ago

UK

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