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UK

In this report, we follow up on the upgrade to our US duration stance from last week with a review of our rates views and government bond allocations outside the US. We conclude that while we now find US Treasuries to be more attractive from a value perspective, even better value is available in euro area and UK government debt.

In this Month-In-Review report, we go over the latest G10 data releases and rank currencies’ fundamental standing based on our updated macroeconomic model.

UK headline inflation fell by less than expected in April. The decline from 10.1% y/y to 8.7% y/y came above consensus estimates calling for a more pronounced drop to 8.2% y/y. And although the annual figure now stands at its lowest since March 2022, the…

Financial commentators, politicians and policymakers have increasingly been blaming stubbornly high inflation on companies pursuing aggressive pricing strategies to boost earnings and margins. In this Special Report, we investigate the concept of “greedflation” – companies persistently raising prices faster than costs are increasing to pad profit margins - and see if the associated conclusions about corporate pricing power and inflation are borne out by the data in the US, euro area and UK.

A restrictive policy by the ECB and a weak manufacturing sector will create headwinds for European stocks this summer. How should investors position their portfolios in this context?

In Thursday’s BoE meeting, policymakers highlighted that stronger-than-anticipated food price gains contributed to recent upside surprises in the UK’s inflation rate. Rapidly climbing food inflation hit a 19.6% y/y in March. The UK is not alone. Similar…
As expected, the Bank of England raised its bank rate by 25bps to 4.5% on Thursday, marking the 12th consecutive rise. Notably the updated projections show a significant improvement in the economic outlook. The upwards growth revisions reflect falling energy…

The change in the BoE’s tone has likely altered the path for sterling. In this report, we explore if the BoE’s lens for monetary policy is justified, and provide some targets for the pound.

The change in the BoE’s tone has likely altered the path for sterling. In this report, we explore if the BoE’s lens for monetary policy is justified, and provide some targets for the pound.

At 3.8%, the yield on 10-year UK Gilts is now back near where it was in early March. This marks a round-trip after the yield fell to as low as 3.3% in the weeks following the emergence of bank stress in the US and Europe. Meanwhile, both US and German 10-year…