US Dollar

While 2024 will see various election risks, global geopolitical uncertainty is driven by the US election and its struggle with Russia, China, and Iran. The stock market can manage local domestic political risk. But it will correct upon a major outbreak of geopolitical uncertainty.

This week’s report explores factors behind the recent rise in the dollar, and whether this could continue in the next month.

When will the US also buckle under high rates? We expect a US recession to begin around mid-year. Stay defensive.

Following the release of the white paper yesterday, today we are sending you the inaugural issue of the MacroQuant Monthly, a report summarizing the output of our next-generation MacroQuant 2.0 model.

Disinflation coupled with sticky wage growth is likely to result in either a second wave of inflation or layoffs and a recession. In the meantime, market expectations for sales, growth, and margins are overly optimistic and are inconsistent with macroeconomic headwinds. We recommend gradually realigning the portfolio to a more defensive stance.

This report examines if investors should worry about a balance of payments crisis in the next 3-to-6 months.

The SEC has just approved bitcoin spot ETFs, but does bitcoin have any ‘intrinsic’ value? In this Special Report we explain why the answer is yes, how bitcoin compares with gold, and why the bitcoin price could ultimately head well north of $100,000.