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US Dollar

In this update to the two Special Reports on FX hedging of global equity portfolios with nine different home currencies, published in 2017, we show that BCA’s proprietary dynamic FX hedging strategies have consistently added value to global equity portfolios. We value quant models as an important input in our decision-making process, but we do not suggest any investor to slavishly follow them, because models cannot capture all the important fundamental changes, as demonstrated in the details of this report.

In this update to the two Special Reports on FX hedging of global equity portfolios with nine different home currencies, published in 2017, we show that BCA’s proprietary dynamic FX hedging strategies have consistently added value to global equity portfolios. We value quant models as an important input in our decision-making process, but we do not suggest any investor to slavishly follow them, because models cannot capture all the important fundamental changes, as demonstrated in the details of this report.

According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the counter-trend bounce in the dollar will continue. Factually, the trend in the dollar has depended on both global growth dynamics and the relative health of the US economy. From higher…

In this week’s report, we assess the key reasons why the dollar has risen, and if that is set to continue.

Recent Eurozone economic data indicate that restrictive monetary policy and the global manufacturing downturn are weighing down on the region’s economy. In particular, new orders at German factories plunged by 11.7% m/m in July – significantly below…
The final PMIs for August delivered a pessimistic update on service sector conditions in the Euro Area and China. The Eurozone services index was unexpectedly revised down from 48.3 to 47.9 – indicating a more pronounced decline in service sector activity…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service much of the new BRICS+ countries lack the fundamental basis of making a credible monetary union. A reserve currency needs the military might to control the trading routes necessary to maintain…
Global financial markets relapsed in August. After a relatively strong performance in June and July, most of the major financial assets we track generated below average returns last month as investors shifted their focus to the risk of a “no landing” scenario…

In this report, we explore what a new BRICS+ union means for the dollar over the next 6-to-9 months.

Stocks should continue to rally in the near term, but investors should prepare to turn more defensive towards the end of the year in advance of a recession in 2024.