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United States

Too Hot For Cuts, Too Cool For Hikes
May US CPI was roughly in line with estimates and still shows no evidence of energy passing through to core inflation. Headline CPI rose 0.5% m/m, accelerating to 4.2% y/y from 3.8%. Core came in cooler than estimates at 0.2% m/m, down from 0.4% in April,…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
1 day ago
Core Inflation Is Tame For Now … But Risks Remain For US Bonds

May CPI data show no evidence of passthrough from energy prices to core inflation. This will keep the Fed on hold for the time being.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
1 day ago
Weak NFIB, Limited Wage Pressure
The May NFIB survey missed estimates and pointed to softer small-business conditions, though the signal on the broader labor market remains mixed. The headline index fell to 95.3 from 95.9. The overall picture was soft, with both capex and hiring intentions…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
2 days ago
The US Consumer Can Keep Going
Our US Investment strategists expect consumption to maintain its expansion-consistent pace, though households remain exposed to any material equity-market decline. Consumption is still growing near a 7.7% annualized nominal pace, while real disposable income…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
2 days ago
The Consumer Can Keep Going

Although the multi-decade surge in the value of households’ equity holdings has made US activity more vulnerable to a stock selloff, the latest income, spending and employment data suggest that consumption growth can carry on at a 2% inflation-adjusted pace.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
US Employment Gathering Steam
The blowout US payrolls report reinforces improving labor market momentum and upside risks to Fed policy, arguing for continued caution on duration. Non-farm payrolls rose 172k, well-above expectations of 88k, while the prior two months were revised sharply…
Daily Insights by Artem Sakhbiev
US High-Quality Strategy: Large Caps Outperform, SMIDs Lag Throughout May

The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio outperformed its benchmark through May, returning 3.88%, while its SPY benchmark returned 2.25%. On a trailing three-month basis, the USHQ portfolio’s performance was weaker than the benchmark, with USHQ underperforming by approx. 86bps.

Equity Analyzer by Henry Tang
Is Kevin Warsh Correct About AI’s Impact On Inflation And Interest Rates?

The AI boom will increase inflation in the near term and could also raise it over the long term. The Fed’s reluctance to hike rates is understandable, but it risks amplifying what may already be a brewing stock market bubble. 

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Inflation Pressures Everywhere You Look
Severe US droughts reinforce an already inflationary backdrop and highlight risks of overshoots, warranting close monitoring. Close to 60% of continental US territory is in drought conditions, making this one of the worst drought episodes on record, according…
Daily Insights by Artem Sakhbiev
Kevin Warsh’s Communications Challenge

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2026.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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