United States
Maintain a moderately defensive stance as a bold but constrained Trump keeps policy risk elevated. President Trump’s second mandate has been quite different from his first. Trump remains a disruptive and unorthodox actor deliberately challenging norms and…
Expect limited near-term market impact but longer-run USD headwinds as challenges to Fed independence play out. The Federal Reserve was served grand jury subpoenas by the Department of Justice threatening a criminal indictment. Fed Chair Powell responded with…
Maintain a conservative tactical stance as subdued sentiment and slowing labor dynamics pose risks to consumption. The preliminary January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index slightly beat expectations, rising to 54.0 from 52.9, reflecting an…
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists remain constructive on risk assets and continue to overweight cyclical sectors while recommending staying overweight tail risk protection as markets brace for tariff-related uncertainty. A forthcoming decision on US…
Maintain long duration and favor curve steepeners as a fragile labor backdrop keeps the door open to further Fed cuts. The December US employment report sent mixed signals. Nonfarm payrolls rose 50k, missing estimates and slowing from a downwardly revised 56k…
Political risk will increasingly weigh on US markets. Our Chart of the Week comes from Mathieu Savary, BCA’s Chief DM ex. US Strategist. Mathieu shows that US corporate-sector employee compensation has slipped to a post-war low as a share of GDP, while…
Measures of labor market utilization improved in December, ruling out a January cut and significantly reducing the odds of a March cut.
Much like the 2000 episode, we expect this year to unfold in two stages: A “Great Rotation” from tech stocks to non-tech names in the first half of 2026 followed by a broad-based selloff in stocks in the second half on the back of a weakening US economy.
Expect oil to keep trending lower on macro fundamentals, not on increased Venezuelan production. In the aftermath of US intervention in Venezuela and at the start of a midterm year, President Trump said he wants oil prices down to $50/bbl. One channel would…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2026.