United States
After this morning’s jobless claims number, we have now seen enough deterioration in our preferred labor market indicators to increase portfolio duration from “at benchmark” to “above benchmark”.
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, there is little firepower left to sustain the US equity rally much further. The ratio of aggregate investable funds of US households and investment organizations/firms is at a record…
We assign high odds that the US will tip into a recession by year-end or early 2025. Given it has been the largest driver of global demand in this cycle, a US recession will morph into a global downturn. The procyclical Eurozone economy is particularly…
BCA’s composite sentiment indicator, compiled from surveys of advisors, individual investors and traders, surged over the past three months from already very optimistic levels. It reached 63% last week, a six-and-half-year high and the third highest point in…
The US economy has clearly cooled from its above-trend pace of growth in 2023. The consensus view among BCA Research’s strategists project that this deceleration will eventually culminate in a recession by year-end or early 2025. Our US Investment…
Total consumer credit rose by USD 11.4 billion in May (to USD 5,065 billion outstanding) from a slightly upwardly revised USD 6.5 billion increase in April, surpassing expectations of a smaller increase. Notably, revolving credit (which includes credit cards)…
The S&P 600 and Russell 2000 have outperformed the S&P 500 by close to 10% since July 9. Small caps typically outperform in the early stages of economic expansions when growth is accelerating, demand-driven inflation is rising and lending standards…
We calculate expected returns for several different US fixed income sectors with a focus on how municipal bonds stack up against the investment alternatives.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) – a summary statistic of US economic data releases – decreased to 0.05 from 0.23, suggesting that the US economy cooled in June. Although the headline index surpassed expectations of a negative (below-average…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the biggest problem for Democrats is the economy. First, voters around the world have repeatedly voted against ruling parties since the 2022 inflation surge, in a sign of anti-incumbent sentiment…