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United States

Bleak Capex Outlook Bodes Ill For Cyclical Assets
US durable goods orders grew by 0.1% m/m in May, a tick below April’s pace, and upending preliminary expectations they would decline by 0.5%. Moreover, the contraction in core capital goods shipments (an input into the calculation of GDP) was revised lower…
Daily Insights
Will The Greenback Continue To Appreciate?
The trade-weighted US dollar ranked among the top performing major asset classes we track in June. It hit a low on June 3rd and has appreciated by 1.5% since then. This is despite no change in short-end rate differentials and an outright narrowing in long-end…
Daily Insights
Introducing GeoMacro Strategy: The Search For Geopolitical Beta
BCA Research’s newly launched GeoMacro Strategy service presents the User’s Manual in its inaugural report navigating the differences between Geopolitical alpha and beta. What is the difference between geopolitical alpha and beta?…
Daily Insights
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US Unemployment: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

We explain how to distinguish between ‘good’, ‘bad’ and ‘ugly’ unemployment, why bad unemployment is a much better gauge of the jobs market than headline unemployment, and what this means for the tactical positioning in bonds and stocks. Plus: base metals (XBM) have already sold off sharply, so take profits in the short position and open a tactical overweight in global materials (MXI).

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
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Remember, Remember, the Fifth of November

In our Volume I – The Alpha Report – we posit that the French bond market reaction is a mere amuse bouche for what is coming to the US. All year, we have warned investors that US politics could induce a bond market riot. This moment is nigh. Act accordingly!

GeoMacro Strategy by Marko Papic
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Trump Versus Macro

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
US Job Openings Unexpectedly Rise
The number of job openings in the US surprised to the upside in May, growing from a downwardly revised 7.9 million to 8.1 million. Not only did the growth in job openings beat expectations of a decline, but the May number even grew compared to the pre-revised…
Daily Insights
Contracting ISM Manufacturing Hides Even Weaker Demand Conditions
The ISM manufacturing PMI ticked lower in June, from 48.7 to 48.5, thus disappointing expectations of a slower pace of manufacturing sector contraction. The seemingly small decline hides more uninspiring dynamics. Most notably, the production, employment…
Daily Insights
What Are Bond Market Inflows Telling Us?
According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service, while equity markets can drive US dollar crosses from time to time, bond market inflows matter a lot more. Part of the US exceptionalism story can be explained by the fact that: US…
Daily Insights
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Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: Recession Signs Increase

Concerns about the global economy have shifted from sticky inflation to faltering growth. Tight monetary policy is finally starting to bite. We suggest increasing portfolio defensiveness.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans

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