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United States

The World's Growth Engine Is Sputtering
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, absent China’s exponential credit growth, China’s trend growth rate will fall to 4 percent and the world’s trend growth rate will fall to sub-3 percent. This will impede structural rallies in the Chinese stock…
Daily Insights
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Third Quarter 2024 Strategy Outlook: Here Comes The Pain

The consensus soft-landing narrative is wrong. The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025. We were tactically bullish on stocks most of last year, turned neutral earlier this year, and are going underweight today. We conservatively expect the S&P 500 to drop to 3750 during the coming recession.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
The US Labor Market Is No Longer Tight
Our Global Investment Strategy team often highlights the job openings-to-unemployed ratio as a gauge of the labor market’s slack. This indicator climbed to over 2 job openings per unemployed person in 2022, as labor shortages plagued the US economy due to…
Daily Insights
Bull Markets Blast Out Of The Gate And Sprint To The Finish Line
BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service remains tactically neutral with a defensive cyclical bias. The team is resisting the impulse to turn prematurely defensive ahead of the coming recession. Our colleagues believe that fleeing for the hills at…
Daily Insights
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The BoE Is Turning Cautiously Dovish

Is the BoE making a mistake moving toward rate cuts before the end of the summer? What would such a move mean for UK asset prices?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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Not Dark Yet

Today’s report recaps last week’s webcast and elaborates on its themes, delving into the empirical evidence underpinning our conviction that asset allocators should underweight equities sparingly and fleetingly. We remain tactically neutral and cyclically bearish.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
A Pause In Ex-US Global Growth Rotation?
Preliminary PMI estimates suggest that US economic leadership remained intact in June, despite previous signs that it was passing the global growth baton to the rest of the world. US manufacturing, services and composite PMIs all surpassed expectations as…
Daily Insights
Heed The LEI’s Signal Despite Historical Divergence From CEI
The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index (LEI) disappointed in May, contracting 0.5% m/m from a 0.6% decline in April. However, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) grew 0.4% m/m in May. Year-on-year contractions in the LEI have reliably predicted…
Daily Insights
Agency MBS: Best Bang For Your Buck?
In its latest Special Report, BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service considers the relative merits of four different fixed income investments in the current economic environment: 2-year Treasuries, 10-year Treasuries, Baa-rated corporate bonds and current…
Daily Insights
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Should A Wise Investor Choose A Treasury, Corporate Bond Or MBS?

We consider the relative merits of four different fixed income investments in the current economic environment: 2-year Treasuries, 10-year Treasuries, Baa-rated corporate bonds and current coupon Agency MBS.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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