United States
Bank OZK (ticker: OZK, née Bank of the Ozarks) declined nearly 17% at its low on Wednesday, following a double downgrade from buy to sell by an analyst that also slashed his price target for the stock by a third. The analyst cited “newfound but substantial…
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists caution that US small-cap stocks’ deep discount relative to the S&P 500 is not the generational buying opportunity it may appear to be on its face. While the size premium discovered by Fama and French is real, it…
The message from the latest Beige Book release is confirming that US demand is showing signs of slowing down. Of the 12 Federal Reserve districts, 2 reported modest economic growth, 8 reported economic activity was slightly up, and 2 indicated flat economic…
Although a strategic détente between the US and China would benefit both sides, BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service warns that the trade war will continue. The team has argued that Biden and Xi would fail to put a lid on US-China tensions this year. …
The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence surprised to the upside on Tuesday. The headline index improved to 102 from 97.5, upending expectations of a continued moderation to 96. The rebound follows 3 consecutive months of decline. The…
Recent US housing market data has been uninspiring. The FHFA house price index decelerated in March from 1.2% m/m to 0.1% m/m, disappointing expectations of 0.5% m/m, and the S&P CoreLogic 20-City index growth rate declined from 0.55% m/m to…
At BCA Research, fundamentals drive our analysis and we use indicators and quantitative metrics as guides to inform our views further. It is our fundamental assessment of the US labor market that underpins our view that softer labor demand and decelerating…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the money sloshing around the financial system from pandemic-era stimulus measures disconnects near-term prospects for growth from risk asset prices. As a result, we are witnessing an odd…
In this Special Report we assess the absolute and relative attractiveness of developed market government bonds using several fair value models. Longer-term investors who are focused on value should overweight US long-maturity bonds, and favor Spanish, Australian, and potentially UK government bonds within a DM ex-US allocation.
We recommend overweight in Pharma over a tactical and strategic investment horizon, as challenges, that have recently hampered the industry group’s performance, are dissipating. Likely election outcomes are positive for the industry, while major trends like generative AI applied to drug development and an aging population are long-term tailwinds.