United States
EUR/USD has fallen by almost 5% since July last year. There are fundamental reasons why this move has taken place. The US economy has shown significant more resilience than the European one. Consumption continues to be strong, and GDP is still growing at a…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, the May FOMC meeting is unlikely to cause a stir in fixed income markets. The Fed will hold an FOMC meeting next week and while it will not update its economic or interest rate projections, we will be…
Investors anticipate a record growth gap between the US and the Eurozone in 2024. Does this skewed expectation create market opportunities?
The latest edition of our Big Bank Beige Book suggests the expansion remains intact, though weakness in C’s private-label credit card portfolio could be a harbinger of distress among lower-income consumers. We remain tactically neutral with a bias to turn defensive once clearer signs of a recession emerge.
Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditure report for March showed headline and core PCE inflation both came in at 0.3% m/m, in line with expectations. Meanwhile the increase in annual headline PCE number from 2.5% y/y to 2.7% y/y, was more pronounced than…
Our latest views on the recent increase in Treasury yields and some key things to watch at next week’s FOMC meeting.
The advanced estimates for US real GDP suggest that economic growth slowed meaningfully from 3.4% in Q4 2023 to 1.6% in Q1 2024 on an annualized basis, significantly below expectations of 2.5%. That said, the details of the report were less gloomy. While…
Throughout this cycle, US housing has defied expectations. Overall home prices have never fallen since the pandemic, even as the Fed has conducted its second most aggressive tightening campaign in history. Today, home price growth remains robust, running at…
Equity markets reacted negatively to the preliminary Q1 US GDP on Thursday, with the S&P 500 shedding 0.5%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 bps in response to the stronger-than-expected core PCE inflation print for Q1. Importantly,…
The resilience of the US economy has led economists to consistently revise up their consensus real GDP growth forecast for 2024, which now stands at 2.4%, up from 0.6% in July 2023. Conversely, the 2024 consensus Eurozone growth estimate has been trending…