United States

Unlike most advanced economies that are flirting with recession due to weak demand, the ‘inverted’ US economy is motoring along due to strong supply, from a combination of surging labour participation and surging immigration. We go through the implications for stocks, bonds, interest rates, and the dollar. Plus: IXJ, PEP, and MCD are good tactical outperformance candidates.

In the near term, favor oil and oil producers outside the Gulf Arab states. Over a 12-month horizon, favor US and North American equities, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and safe-assets. Within cyclicals, stick to energy and defense.

The Telecoms industry is highly concentrated, and carriers compete on price and quality of service in a slow growing market. Demand for capex is relentless. The roll out of 5G has disappointed. Recently, capex outlays have slowed, and operating cash flow has rebounded. Further, Telecoms is a quintessential defensive industry that will outperform during a market pullback.

In the short run, global risk assets are vulnerable due to rising oil prices and bond yields. Cyclically, a global economic downturn will weigh on global risk assets.

EUR/USD collapsed in the wake of last week’s hotter-than-expected US CPI report. Is this pessimism warranted and will the euro’s trading range that has prevailed since 2023 breakdown?

We look beneath headline data to assess the state of the labor market in cyclical goods-producing industries that have previously led overall nonfarm payrolls and in the services segments that have recently been leading the charge. The bottom-up view looks a lot like the top-down view: the labor market is softening, but very slowly, and offers no indications that a recession is at hand.