United States
The 303-thousand increase in nonfarm payrolls in March came in well above consensus expectations of a moderation from 270 thousand to 214 thousand. Healthcare, the public sector and construction were the top contributors to employment growth. Moreover, the…
The past week brought a slew of positive US economic data, all suggesting that conditions remain robust and a recession is not imminent. The ISM Manufacturing PMI crossed into expansion for the first time since September 2022, the number of job openings…
BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service maintains a neutral view on the dollar for the next three months. The team continues to believe that the dollar is due for a long-term bear market, but momentum is in favor of the DXY in the near term. …
Our reaction to this morning’s employment report and bond market moves.
Climbing US bond yields, alongside higher oil prices, might spoil the party for global risk assets. There are budding cracks in EM domestic bonds, and even though we like this asset class in the long run, investors exposed to it should reduce their positions for now.
The US manufacturing sector appears to be enjoying a revival. As we highlighted yesterday, the ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly returned to growth in March and the S&P Global US manufacturing PMI remains in expansion territory. Yet, service sector…
The extraordinary performance of AI companies has pushed US growth stocks to new highs. So far, the MSCI US Growth Index has returned almost 11% since the start of the year, outperforming global stocks by over 3%. No growth index from the rest of the world…
The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3 in March, better than expectations of 48.4 and breaking above the 50 boom-bust line for the first time since September 2022. Notably the new orders component rebounded to 51.4, marking the second expansionary reading…
The number of job openings in the US in February (8.76 million) was little changed from the downwardly revised 8.75 million in January, keeping the job openings rate stable at 5.3%. Similarly, the hiring rate was little changed at 3.7% in February, from 3.6%…
The Dallas Fed released its trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for February on Friday. The trimmed mean PCE is a measure of underlying inflation which excludes the top 31% and the bottom 25% of the PCE basket and then uses a weighted average of the remaining…