Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

United States

A soft landing can be achieved but not maintained. We are cutting our tactical recommendation on stocks from overweight to neutral and scaling back our long-duration stance.

S&P 500: Is A January Selloff An Ominous Sign? …
The market is pricing in that the Fed will cut rates by around 175 BPs this year, with the first rate cut coming as early as March. We think it unlikely that the Fed will cut that quickly – unless a deterioration in the labor market points to an imminent…
Results of the November JOLTS survey indicate that the US labor market is softening. The number of job openings slowed from 8.85 million to 8.79 million – the lowest since March 2021 and slightly below expectations of 8.82 million. This brings the ratio of…
Minutes from the Fed’s December 12-13 FOMC meeting suggest that policymakers are more confident that inflation is on track to return to target. While they continued to note that inflation remains elevated and that they are highly attentive to inflation risks,…

The market is excited by the idea that the Fed will cut rates early this year, even without a recession. But is that likely, with inflation still set to be around 2.8% mid-year?

Economists have been consistently revising up their 2024 US GDP forecasts over the past 4 months. The consensus now anticipates US growth to clock in at 1.3% this year. According to the latest estimate from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, this will follow…

In this, our final report of the year, we present our main global fixed income investment themes and recommendations for 2024.

In this final note for the year, we take profits and close several long-term investment positions: Overweights in Insurance and Commercial Services, and underweights in Utilities, and Retail and Commercial REITs.

Our outlook for the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies in 2024.