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United States

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The US Labor Market Is Slowing, But Is It Signaling Recession?

We investigate the recent increase in unemployment with the goal of determining whether it is flagging an imminent US recession.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Proceeding Carefully
The minutes of the Fed's latest FOMC meeting revealed that there is a consensus among policymakers to proceed carefully. Another rate increase is appropriate only if "incoming inflation indicated that progress toward the Committee's inflation objective was…
Daily Insights
Pricing Power Is Fading But There Are A Few Holdouts
Inflation has been in a downtrend for a few months now, which has translated into fading corporate pricing power. With wage growth still strong, and the cost of energy on the rise, the degree of companies’ pricing power differentiates their ability to protect…
Daily Insights
Mid-Caps Are More Financially Stable Than Small-Caps
According to BCA Research's US Equity Strategy service, mid-caps underperform when spreads widen, although less so than Small as they are more financially robust and have better credit ratings. Small is the most leveraged relative to income (EBITDA) and…
Daily Insights
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Mid-caps: The Best Of Both Worlds

Mid-caps are the best of both worlds and are an excellent strategic overweight thanks to their size premium, but also better financial quality and higher dividend yield than Small. We are bullish on Mid near term and believe that this may be a great trade. We will initiate a position in the S&P 400 as a tactical overweight but will monitor it very closely.

Equity Analyzer by Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell
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The Midwest: The Pivot Of US History

President Biden is facing foreign challenges on three fronts and these challenges are coalescing around the critical states of the Midwest. Take risks off the table and stay defensive in 2024.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
US LEI Continues To Signal Recession Ahead
The US Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) continues to send a poor signal about the economic outlook. The monthly pace of contraction quickened to -0.8% m/m in October from -0.7% m/m in September. In terms of the drivers of the monthly…
Daily Insights
Waiting For The Optimal Opportunity To Turn Defensive
The soft-landing narrative is gaining momentum, pushing equities higher and potentially offering investors a better entry point to position against it. Financial markets appear to have been surprised by the comforting inflation picture painted by the…
Daily Insights
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Mid-caps: The Best Of Both Worlds

Mid-caps are the best of both worlds and are an excellent strategic overweight thanks to their size premium, but also better financial quality and higher dividend yield than Small. We are bullish on Mid near term and believe that this may be a great trade. We will initiate a position in the S&P 400 as a tactical overweight but will monitor it very closely.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell
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The Soft-Landing Narrative Gathers Steam

The soft-landing narrative has gotten nowhere at BCA but appears to be making some headway with broker-dealers and investors. We are preparing to lean against it once it pushes equity prices a little higher.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta

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