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United States

US Energy Outlook: Democracies Run On Oil

We are strategically bullish on the outlook of the energy sector. Domestic and external political constraints asserted themselves, restraining the most negative impulse against this sector by the Biden administration. Go long energy versus cyclicals (ex-tech).

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
Does The Budding Lumber Rally Have Legs?
Tuesday’s US housing starts and building permits update for May corroborates the upbeat signal on the housing market from the latest NAHB survey. Both starts and permits increased on a month-on-month basis and exceeded consensus estimates. The 1.63 million…
Daily Insights
Real Earnings Growth Across Various Inflation Regimes
High levels of inflation distort cross-period comparisons of both earnings and sales and mask real earnings growth rates. Last year is a case in point: While in nominal terms, earnings (including Energy) have been contracting for only two quarters, in real…
Daily Insights
What Could Push Bond Yields Higher From Here?

This week’s report examines three potential catalysts that could push Treasury yields meaningfully higher within the next few months. We also consider the rebuild of the Treasury’s cash holdings and its implications for the Fed’s balance sheet policy and financial markets.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
US Homebuilder Sentiment Turns Positive
US Homebuilder confidence surprised to the upside on Monday, with the NAHB’s Housing Market Index jumping from 50 to 55 in June – beating expectations of 51. This marks the first time in 11 months that the index rises above the 50 level, signaling favorable…
Daily Insights
A Looming Sugar Crash?
After a brief decline, sugar prices have once again been climbing higher over the past two weeks. The price of the commodity is nearly back to its late-April high, bringing its year-to-date gain back up to 32%. While overbought conditions and stretched…
Daily Insights
Have Growth Stocks Overshot?
The 231bps rise in the 10-year Treasury yield last year weighed heavily on the relative performance of Growth stocks which lost 22.7% vis-à-vis the Value index in 2022. However, these dynamics have reversed this year with the rally in Growth stocks outpacing…
Daily Insights
Is The S&P 500 Expensive, Enough?
Is The S&P 500 Expensive, Enough? …
Daily Insights
So Far, So Good On The Road To 4,500

As the S&P 500 nears our 4,500 target, we review the rationale behind the call to assess its merit.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
Head Fake Or Real Deal Webcast: Poll Results And Client Questions

Investors are still cautious and have significant cash that needs to be put to work. Trickle-down of it into the US equity market may extend the rally. Overly bearish futures positioning is also a strong contrarian indicator. Disinflation is good for real earnings growth, and imminent earnings rebound may add support for equities.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel

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