United States
The September ISM Manufacturing index beat expectations at 49.1, but details confirm weak momentum and tariff-driven pressures. The headline improved from 48.7 in August, its second consecutive monthly gain, but the uptick came mainly from longer supplier…
August JOLTS data confirm a loosening labor market, reinforcing a modestly defensive allocation stance. Job openings ticked up to 7.23m from 7.21m, yet gains came from non-cyclical sectors. Quits fell to 3.09m from 3.17m, pushing the quits rate down to 1.9%…
President Trump said a partial federal government shutdown is "probably likely" late in the afternoon on September 30. Senators have until midnight to pass a continuing resolution already passed by the House that would keep the government operating until…
Consumer confidence fell further, reinforcing weakening labor signals and supporting a long duration stance. The September Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 94.2 from 97.8, missing estimates. Both present situation and expectations…
Monetary policy divergences are re-emerging. We rely on BCA’s Central Bank Monitor to assess the current policy stance of major central banks, and highlight the tactical opportunities across bond markets and currencies.
Real Estate performance is contingent upon the Fed rate-cutting cycle. Yet, we worry about a hawkish Fed surprise and are closing our overweight in the sector. We also recommend a granular approach to subsector selection.
Will the US federal government shutdown on October 1? Congressional leaders are meeting with President Trump in the White House as we go to press. If eight Democratic senators do not vote with Republicans to pass a no-frills "continuing resolution" by…
September consumption and income data beat estimates, showing a resilient US consumer but leaving the outlook fragile. Personal spending rose 0.6% m/m, outpacing income at 0.4%, pushing the saving rate down to 4.6%, its lowest level this year. Adjusted for…
BCA clients see the FOMC cutting the fed funds rate to 3-3.5% by the end of next year, compared to 4-4.25% now, and the FOMC’s own median forecast of 3.4%. In the latest weekly edition of our Have Your Say client poll, 67% of respondents voted for…
Our tactical framework, which tracks the reflexive loop between financial conditions and economic surprises, points to stronger near-term growth, leaving equities vulnerable if inflation re-accelerates. Data surprises move markets, while bond yields and the…