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United States

Bonds Rebound Following Historic 2022 Selloff
Bonds started off the new year with a bang. So far in 2023, the Barclays US and Global Aggregate indices have returned 2.7% and 3.3%, respectively. These gains come after last year’s historic broad-based bond market selloff when the global monetary policy…
Daily Insights
Projected US Treasury Returns In Three Economic Scenarios
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, US Treasuries have limited downside, even in relatively optimistic economic scenarios, but considerable upside in a recessionary scenario. They devise three plausible scenarios for how the US economy…
Daily Insights
Will The Semi Rally Endure?
In recent months, US and global semiconductor companies have participated in financial markets’ “risk-on” phase. The semiconductor subsector of the S&P tech sector is up 39.4% since mid-October, outperforming the broad index by 25.8% during this period…
Daily Insights
The Calm Before The Storm

The most important question investors need to answer is whether this is the right time to shift the portfolio to a more aggressive and cyclical stance now that the end of the hiking cycle is in sight. To answer this question, we review the most recent macroeconomic, geopolitical, and equity market developments, and do our best to separate facts and data from sentiment and conjecture. We conclude that there are many challenges ahead and equities are not in a clear yet. We recommend investors add small positions in areas of the market that benefit from rate stabilization while maintaining an overall defensive stance.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Projecting US Bond Returns For 2023

This week’s Special Report uses our Golden Rule of Bond Investing to forecast US Treasury returns for 2023 under different economic scenarios.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Ryan Swift
US Consumption Declines, Savings Rate Jumps In December
The December US PCE report corroborates evidence from the Q4 GDP release that underlying demand is weakening in the US. Real personal spending declined by a larger-than-expected 0.3% m/m in December, following a downwardly revised 0.2% monthly contraction.…
Daily Insights
Transportation Overstates December US Durable Goods Orders
Preliminary estimates suggest that US durable goods orders grew by 5.6% m/m in December following an upwardly revised 1.7% monthly contraction in November, and largely surpassing expectations of a 2.5% m/m increase. However, a surge in transportation…
Daily Insights
US Q4 GDP Beat Conceals Weak Fundamentals
On the surface, the advance GDP release suggests that the US economy held up better-than-expected in Q4. Although real GDP growth slowed to 2.9% from 3.2% it beat expectations of a greater deceleration to 2.6%. However, the details of the report were much…
Daily Insights
US Sectoral Performance: A Mirror Image Of 2022
The year-to-date relative performance of S&P 500 sectors is a mirror image of 2022. Sectors that are currently outperforming the benchmark by the widest margins (cyclicals such as Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and IT) were the worst…
Daily Insights
The US Is Nearing Its ‘Event Horizon’
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, whenever US retail sales versus average hourly earnings decline by 3.5 percent from peak, the unemployment rate goes on to breach the ‘event horizon’ of a US recession. If you were heading into a black…
Daily Insights

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