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United States

US Job Openings Plummet in August
The US JOLTS Report revealed that the number of job openings decreased to 10.1 million in August from 11.2 million in July, largely below expectations of a milder decline. This 10% month-on-month decrease is the largest since the beginning of the pandemic in…
Daily Insights
The Risk From Rising Gasoline Prices
Following a 27% decline from mid-June to mid-September, US gasoline prices have been steadily rising for the past two weeks. Initially, the increase occurred despite falling oil prices. However, oil has also been rallying over the past few days amid…
Daily Insights
Housing Market Reverberations
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, a cooling housing market does not represent a material economic threat. The speed and magnitude of the backup in mortgage rates has upended the housing market. However, sellers are likely to…
Daily Insights
GFIS Model Bond Portfolio Q3/2022 Review & Outlook: A Difficult Finish

This week, we present our quarterly review of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) model bond portfolio for Q3/2022. We also discuss the model portfolio’s expected performance over next 3-6 months after our recent moves to reduce overall duration exposure and increase the underweight to US Treasuries.

Global Fixed Income Strategy
Keep Your Eye On The Ball

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2022.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
ISM Manufacturing PMI Sinks, Misses Expectations
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI sent a pessimistic signal about the US economy. The headline index lost 1.9 points in September and fell to 50.9 – disappointing market expectations of 52. This marks the lowest print since May 2020 and brings the indicator close…
Daily Insights
Things Can Get Worse
BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service continues to recommend a highly defensive stance, with an underweight on equities, and as high a cash holding as your mandate permits. This has been an extraordinary year so far: US equities are down by 24%…
Daily Insights
Style Chart Pack

We remain bearish on equities. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon that is embedded and perpetuated by a wage-price spiral. The Fed will “keep at it until the job is done.” Economic growth is slowing, and an earnings recession as soon as the end of this year is highly likely. US equities are not cheap and rising rates and slowing earnings growth will take their toll on performance. Don’t fight the Fed!

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Questions From The Road

We share our thoughts about some of the less-discussed topics that came up across three weeks of face-to-face discussions with investors. We retain our conviction that the American consumer’s demise has been greatly exaggerated, and it continues to underpin our constructive near-term view on the US economy.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
Real US Consumer Spending Inches Up In August
The Commerce Department’s report reveals that US consumption was resilient in August. Nominal spending increased by 0.4%, beating expectations of a 0.2% increase. Meanwhile, the 0.1% increase in real expenditures was in line with consensus forecasts. In…
Daily Insights

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