United States
Cresting price pressures and weak global growth reinforce our long duration stance, with labor market slack limiting inflation upside across most major economies. Our price pressure indexes show moderate input inflation outside the US and stable global…
BCA’s Geopolitical strategists argue that artificial intelligence will destabilize both domestic politics and international security, prompting more aggressive fiscal responses. President Trump’s July 23 executive orders to accelerate US AI innovation,…
A historic divergence between systematic strategies is creating a compelling entry point into Managed Futures. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Brian Payne, Chief Strategist for our Private Markets & Alternatives team.In their…
June core capital goods orders missed, confirming subdued capex momentum and reinforcing our defensive stance and long duration bias. Orders fell 0.7% m/m, below expectations, while shipments rose 0.4%. Headline durable goods dropped 9.3%, reversing…
Investors should anticipate above average Treasury returns during the next 12 months, and curve steepeners will continue to profit.
July DM flash PMIs point to improving global growth momentum led by services, but manufacturing remains weak and upside is limited, reinforcing our defensive stance. Services PMIs improved in the US, Europe, and Japan, but slowed in the UK. Manufacturing…
The post-Liberation Day dichotomy between improving soft data and worsening hard data points to an uneven recovery, keeping us positioned for downside risk. Soft data cratered post-Liberation Day as policy uncertainty and market volatility surged, with…
The Japan-US trade deal removes short-term uncertainty but leaves in place high tariffs. The deal imposes a 15% tariff on most Japanese exports, lower than the previously threatened 25% on autos, and includes Japanese commitments to purchase Boeing aircraft…
Recent criticism of the Fed centers on post-GFC policy, but proposed solutions would risk policy incoherence and higher long-end yields. Criticism covers the Fed’s reliance on balance sheet policies aimed at easing financial conditions after hitting the…
BCA’s Geopolitical strategists advise investors to remain open to the possibility that a new Cold War dynamic is forming in global trade. While the US-China rivalry does not map perfectly onto the original Cold War, the analogy retains analytical value. US…