United States
January US CPI cooled slightly, with leading indicators pointing to further disinflation later this year. Headline inflation fell to 2.4% y/y in January from 2.7%. Similarly, core also cooled to 2.5% from 2.6%, in line with estimates. Core goods inflation…
Core inflation will get close to the Fed’s 2% target by the end of this year.
January’s upside jobs surprise creates a risk for our long duration and steepeners recommendations for US bond portfolios. The employment report exceeded expectations, hinting at rebounding job growth and stabilizing labor market utilization. This was…
The January employment report exceeded expectations, pointing to a genuine pickup in labor demand and reducing the urgency for near-term Fed easing. Nonfarm payrolls rose 130k, up from 48k in December. Net revisions to November and December lowered payrolls…
The labor market tightened in January, significantly lowering the odds of a H1 2026 rate cut. Rate cuts driven by lower inflation are still likely in H2 2026.
The January NFIB survey points to broad-based weakness among small businesses, reinforcing signs of easing labor market conditions amid mixed growth signals. The January NFIB Small Business Optimism Index missed estimates, easing to 99.3 from 99.5 in…
Rumors around the possible exit of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick are unlikely to materially alter the trajectory of US trade policy. While the Epstein scandal is widening across US and UK politics, our US Political strategists caution against…
US retail sales point to growing consumer weakness. December US retail sales missed expectations across the board and slowed from November. The headline and core measures excluding gas and/or autos were flat, while the control group used to calculate GDP fell…
US inflation expectations remain well anchored, preserving policy flexibility as labor market risks stay elevated. The NY Fed’s January Survey of Consumer Expectations showed a decline in 1-year inflation expectations, while 3-year and 5-year expectations…
Our Global Investment strategists argue it remains too early to bet on housing becoming a key driver of US economic growth this year. The residential real estate market remains soft, and unlike the AI boom, residential investment was a drag on growth in…