United States
US inflation expectations remain well anchored, preserving policy flexibility as labor market risks stay elevated. The NY Fed’s January Survey of Consumer Expectations showed a decline in 1-year inflation expectations, while 3-year and 5-year expectations…
Earnings strength, durability, and breadth are all improving. As the market transitions from multiple-driven to earnings-driven returns, this backdrop supports continued gains in 2026—but with less concentration and greater scope for laggards to catch up rather than leaders to roll over.
Robust forward EPS growth signals a strong earnings backdrop heading into 2026. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Noah Weisberger, our new Chief US Equity Strategist. Noah expects equity performance in 2026 to be increasingly driven by topline growth…
The delayed December JOLTS report confirms the US labor market remains in a stable but fragile “low hiring, low firing” regime. Job openings missed estimates and fell to 6.54m from a downwardly revised 6.93m, translating into a 0.3 percentage point decline in…
The US residential real estate market remains soft. While the decline in mortgage rates is a positive, it is too early to bet on housing becoming the engine of growth for the US economy this year.
The January ISM Services report showed mixed growth signals along with inflationary pressures. The January ISM Services PMI was roughly in line with expectations and unchanged at 53.8 from December. The details of the report were weak: Employment slowed to…
The US labor market remains weak but stable, leaving both labor conditions and US rates at a pivotal point. Given the partial government shutdown, Friday’s January employment report has been postponed to February 11. Alternative data show the US labor market…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for February 2026.
Our Developed Markets ex-US strategists view global liquidity as the decisive macro variable in 2025 and expect it to remain broadly supportive through most of 2026. They therefore stay neutral on equities versus bonds, keep a positive bias toward metals,…
Global manufacturing is stabilizing, with early indications that macro momentum could be turning. The global economy slowed through 2025 due to tariffs and uncertainty, but there are now signs of recovering manufacturing. While DM composite PMIs have largely…