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United States

Empire Fed Adds To Stagflationary Worries
The NY Fed Empire Manufacturing survey adds to recent stagflationary worries, reinforcing our underweight in risk assets and overweight in government bonds. The general business conditions index rose slightly to -8.1 but remains in contraction, while the…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Webcast: US Exceptionalism
US Exceptionalism
I’d like to personally invite you to join me and my colleagues at BCA Research on Tuesday, April 15 (12 PM EDT/ 9 AM PST) for a webcast exclusive to long-term institutional investors.
GeoMacro Strategy Webcast
Screenshot USES PDF
US Equity Market Intelligence Session
We are pleased to share the replay of US Equity Market Intelligence Session, hosted by Chief US Equity Strategist Irene Tunkel.
US Equity Strategy Roundtable
HKD: Strong Peg, Weak Economy
 Our FX strategists expect the HKD peg to hold, but at the cost of prolonged economic weakness and debt deflation in Hong Kong. Interest rates remain too high for the local economy, yet monetary easing is off-limits due to the peg.The currency’s…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Trade War Spurs Inflation Divergence
Tariff-driven inflation is diverging across economies, with the US facing mounting pressures while disinflation persists elsewhere. In theory, US tariffs should strengthen the dollar and weaken targeted currencies. In practice, the opposite has occurred: The…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Tariff Relief ≠ Growth Relief

Europe’s near-term outlook remains clouded by uncertainty, even after the tariff reprieve. Our latest update breaks down why the risks to growth, profits, and financial conditions are still skewed to the downside — with Sweden standing out as a key bellwether.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary, Jeremie Peloso
Weekly Screeners: Bullion Bull Still Raging; Japanese Staples; And Implicit Dividend Yield

This week, our three screeners cover equity plays in: Gold mining stocks, Japanese Staples, and Implicit Dividend Yield. 

Equity Analyzer by Guy Russell, Shi Li
HKD: Strong Peg, Weak Economy

This week, we look at the sustainability of the HKD peg as the next whale to move markets, given what is happening to tariffs. After careful analysis, our bias is that it is here to stay. With the DXY dipping below 100, we are likely to see a rebound, which is actually bad news for the Hong Kong region of China, since it will tighten financial conditions. We have no new short-term trades, but if the peg broke, you want to be short HKD/JPY.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, China Investment Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
US Assets Get The EM Treatment
The recent breakdown in cross-asset correlations highlights mounting risk premia on US assets. Last week, the long-standing correlations underpinning our understanding of global markets violently broke down. The Treasury market turmoil had already broken the…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Steepeners Offer Convexity
Bonds are failing to deliver defensive convexity; asset allocators should look to tactical curve steepeners for protection. Despite rising growth fears, Treasury yields have risen sharply at the long end. This is a clear break from the typical recession…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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