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United States

Still The Highest Tariffs Since The 1930s
Our Global Investment Strategists remain defensive, expecting a global recession in the coming months unless the trade war de-escalates meaningfully. They maintain a year-end S&P 500 target of 4450, with downside risk to 4200.While reciprocal tariffs were…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Steepeners Offer Convexity
Bonds are failing to deliver defensive convexity; asset allocators should look to tactical curve steepeners for protection. Despite rising growth fears, Treasury yields have risen sharply at the long end. This is a clear break from the typical recession…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Sentiment Sinks as Inflation Expectations Surge
The sharp drop in consumer sentiment and rise in inflation expectations reinforce our defensive positioning and preference for long-duration bonds. The preliminary April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8 from 57.0 in March, missing…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Sell America Trade

The combination of dollar weakness and rising US yields suggests global investors are questioning the safe-haven status of US Treasuries.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Still The Bigliest Tariffs Since The 1930s

Barring a dramatic further de-escalation of the trade war, the US and much of the rest of the world will enter a recession over the next few months. Investors should remain defensively positioned for now.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
The Euro’s Win-Win Setup
Dips in European assets remain long-term buying opportunities, even though short-term risks abound. A notable feature of the recent selloff is that US safe havens failed to rally. In a global growth scare, both the US dollar and Treasuries typically benefit.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Will US-China Trade War Escalate To Real War?

China’s aggressive retaliation against U.S. tariffs will enable President Trump to shift from punishing allies and redirect the trade war toward China. If Beijing does not react to the latest tariffs by doubling its fiscal stimulus, it indicates they are planning something different, as China will encounter economic destabilization. The likelihood of a hybrid military pressure on Taiwan will rise.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Thoughts On The Daily Tariffs Rollercoaster
MF2 MF2 …
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Bond Volatility Points To Technical Stress
MF MF …
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
One More Thing To Worry About

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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