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United States

Stagflation Watch: Hot PCE, Softening Demand
February US PCE data adds to the stagflationary tone, reinforcing our overweight duration stance and tactical short in front-end rates. Core PCE inflation rose 0.4% m/m, lifting the year-on-year rate to 2.8%, matching the Fed’s 2025 projection. Headline held…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
April 2: Peak Trade Tensions?
Markets may be bracing for April 2, but the real surprise could be how unsurprising it ends up being. Our Chart Of The Week comes from GeoMacro Chief Strategist Marko Papic, who sees the looming tariff salvo as the peak of de-globalization panic. With Beltway…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Recession Watch Update

This morning’s weak consumer spending and strong inflation data reinforce our sense that the US economy is heading toward recession.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Geopolitical Outlook, Q2 2025

Stocks will continue to struggle in the second quarter as President Trump tries to implement tariffs. Tax cuts will only temporarily dispel growth fears, if at all. Middle Eastern instability will add oil price surprises to an environment that is looking fairly stagflationary.

Geopolitical Strategy, US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
Second Quarter 2025 Strategy Outlook: Into The Abyss

In this Second Quarter Strategy Outlook, we explore the major trends that are set to drive financial markets for the rest of 2025 and beyond.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Macro Momentum Turns, Markets Follow
Macro momentum is deteriorating rapidly, and we remain defensively positioned as risks build. Business and consumer confidence have fallen sharply, and while the US post-election period began with optimism, policy uncertainty has since taken over, prompting a…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Recession NOT Imminent, Says This New Indicator

The US economy has never entered a demand-driven recession without labour demand running below labour supply and without the job vacancy rate running below the unemployment rate. Right now though, US labour demand is still running 1.7 million workers above labour supply, and the job vacancy rate is running comfortably above the unemployment rate. This suggests that the labour market is still supply-constrained, and that a demand-driven recession is not imminent. We discuss the investment implications. Plus, more about our ‘trade of the century’: long cotton versus coffee.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Core Capex Orders Fall As Uncertainty Rises
A drop in core capex orders points to slowing business spending and softening global growth. Businesses appear to have front-loaded shipments ahead of potential tariffs while deferring new orders amid policy uncertainty. With hiring and capex plans softening…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Delinquency Paradox
Our US Investment Strategy team recommends investors remain defensively positioned. Stay underweight US equities and overweight Treasuries and cash, on both a tactical and cyclical horizon, as the likelihood of a midyear recession continues to rise. With key…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Higher Inflation Volatility Demands New Playbook
The years ahead will be more complex for investors. Inflation expectations and its leading indicators will matter as much as realized inflation, and rates volatility is likely to remain structurally higher. This calls for increasing strategic allocations to…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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