United States

An analysis of historical data shows that Ba-rated bonds outperform other corporate credit tiers in the long-run on a risk-adjusted basis. That said, today’s fragile macro environment warrants a more cautious allocation. 

Households’ healthy balance sheets do not square with the rise in credit cards and auto loans delinquencies. The tailwinds that have supported higher-income cohorts’ spending have faded, presaging broad-based deterioration in credit performance. 

European equities have surged on hopes of a low-inflation boom—but the rally has likely gone too far, too fast. With a pullback now likely, how should investors position themselves over the next 3–6 months?

This week, our three screeners cover equity plays for “transitory” inflation impacts from US tariffs, a correction in sentiment within the European Aerospace and Defense industry, and Value Investor, Warren Buffett’s Philosophy.  

In this Special Report, GeoMacro Strategist Marko Papic argues that the Trump administration is flirting with high risk / low reward. Triggering a recession may be the end goal of the White House, but borrowing costs are not declining as much as they ought to be while President Trump’s political capital is on thin ice. Most recessions are caused by a “murder weapon.” It is rare that this weapon can be holstered. This may be one of those times.