United States
Our Developed Markets ex-US strategists view global liquidity as the decisive macro variable in 2025 and expect it to remain broadly supportive through most of 2026. They therefore stay neutral on equities versus bonds, keep a positive bias toward metals,…
Manufacturing data points to resilience after a prolonged slowdown, with inflation risks tilting modestly higher. The January ISM Manufacturing index beat expectations and moved back into expansion at 52.6, after ten consecutive months of contraction through…
Our US equity strategists expect another year of gains for the S&P 500 in 2026, with returns capped by revenue growth as the bull market matures. The US economy is slowing but not contracting, pointing to positive but more modest equity returns. Equity…
2026 should see another year of gains for the S&P 500, but, as the bull market matures and growth slows, returns will be capped by revenue growth rather than being boosted by expanding margins and multiples. We think Tech can outperform, but leadership will broaden and performance gaps will narrow.
MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, has upgraded oil and copper to overweight, and is bullish on gold.
Our Bank Credit Analyst colleagues see an increasingly asymmetric risk profile for global equities, as technology expectations hinge on continued exponential progress in AI models. Expectations for tech earnings, semiconductor demand, and US data center…
Steepeners remain the right trade under a Warsh-led Fed. President Trump announced his intention to nominate former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Despite concerns about Fed independence during the process, Warsh is a conventional candidate.…
S&P 500: Cautious Optimism?
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Resilient US consumption masks rising financial stress in the lower half of a K-shaped economy. Incomes have been flat since the summer, and consumer confidence has deteriorated, particularly around labor-market conditions. While spending has held up, it has…
The Fed will keep rates on hold in H1 2026, but dovish policy surprises are likely in the second half of the year.