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United States

‘Mini-Stagflation’ Will End With A Financial Shock

The US (and the UK) is staring down the barrel of a ‘mini-stagflation’ until a deflationary shock arrives to neutralise it. We describe a likely source for the deflationary shock and list three investment conclusions that are valid irrespective of how long it takes for the deflationary shock to arrive. Plus: RCI.B is deeply oversold and ripe for a rebound.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
US Equities: What Are Our Clients Asking
 Our US Equity strategists held a roundtable, which led to many client questions addressed in the team’s latest report. Long-term interest rates will decline if disinflation persists, deficits shrink, or economic growth slows, though each scenario…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Rates Focus Shifts From Fiscal To Growth
The House of Representatives passed a Budget Resolution bill that adds $2.8tn to the deficit by 2034. Our Geopolitical strategists highlighted during our BCA Live & Unfiltered meeting that the Senate is likely to modify it by increasing tax cuts and…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Dissecting European Equities’ Outperformance
European equities have outperformed the US so far in 2025, especially after Euro Area economic surprises started outperforming as the US is starting to disappoint. The current leadership change between US and European assets reflects extremely one-sided…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Factors In Focus: Sectors That Are Value Plays

Despite the broad market being expensive and overbought, value plays across US equity sectors exist. Real Estate, Communication Services, and Consumer Staples offer cheaper valuations with higher quality attributes relative to history. 

Equity Analyzer by Guy Russell
An Upside Risk For the Euro?
German election results were roughly as expected, but Europe’s biggest economy suddenly just got more interesting. While the details of the governing coalition have yet to be finalized, Chancellor Merz has floated options to ease the “debt brake”, which…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Consumer Confidence Softens Further
The February Conference Board Consumer Confidence index missed estimates for the third month in a row, falling to 98.3 from 105.3. Consumers’ assessment of both their current situation and their expectations worsened, with the latter falling close to 10…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Questions From The Road
Our US Investment strategists visited Midwest clients, and provided a summary of their discussions with investors. Despite solid data, investors should focus on where the economy is headed rather than where it has been. Excess savings have been spent,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Will The US Manufacturing Rebound Last?
The February Dallas Fed Manufacturing index missed estimates, contracting at -8.3 vs. expanding at 14.1 in January. The underlying details of the report were quite poor, with current and future measures of activity broadly ticking down after increasing since…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Peter Berezin’s Thoughts Of The Day: The Price Of Uncertainty

US growth has slowed in recent weeks. This can be seen in the weaker data on retail sales, consumer confidence, services PMIs, and a swath of housing releases (notably starts, existing home sales, homebuilder confidence, and stock prices). It can also be seen in the decline in GDP tracking estimates. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model projects growth of 2.3% in Q1, down from a peak of 3.9% on February 3. The Citi US Economic Surprise Index has also dipped into negative territory.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin

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