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United States

US Economic Roundup

Core PCE inflation came in soft this morning and is tracking well below the Fed’s 2025 forecast. We highlight three upside risks to inflation and preview next week’s employment report.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Weekly Screeners: Global Small-Cap Value, Revisiting Europe, And Nuclear Energy

This week, our three screeners explore global small-cap value stocks, European equities, and BCA’s nuclear energy themed equity baskets.  

Equity Analyzer by Guy Russell
US GDP: Keep An Eye On Consumption
Advanced Q4 US GDP missed estimates, slowing down to 2.3% quarterly annualized growth from 3.1%. The weakness was however driven by inventories. Consumer spending beat estimates and accelerated to 4.2% from 3.7% in Q3. Growth is still above trend as the US…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Fed Enters Wait-And-See Mode
The Federal Reserve kept rates on hold in its 4.25%-to-4.5% range, as expected. The main change in the statement was the removal of the reference to progress towards the Fed’s 2% target, leaving instead a simple mention that inflation “remains somewhat…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Don’t Put The Monetary Cart Before The Fiscal Horse

Jay Powell didn’t say much at this afternoon’s FOMC press conference, and monetary policy will continue to take a back seat to fiscal for the next few months.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
webcastJan29_2025
Un Début D’Année Déroutant
Vous êtes cordialement invité(e) à rejoindre Jérémie Peloso pour un webcast présenté en français le mercredi 29 janvier à 10:00 AM EST (3:00 PM GMT, 4:00 PM CET).
European Investment Strategy Webcast
Game Theory For Trump's Agenda
Our Geopolitical Strategy team modeled several of the Trump administration’s most disruptive policies in a simple game theory framework.  The Trump administration’s policies have created a complex web of trade and foreign negotiations, increasing…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Consumer Confidence Cools Along With Labor Market
The January Conference Board Consumer Confidence index missed estimates, decreasing to 104.1 from an upwardly-revised 109.5 in December. The decrease was driven by both the present situation and expectations subcomponents. The labor differential, the…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Anatomy Of A One-Day Selloff
Monday’s selloff was orderly and concentrated in the tech sector. The price action was a classic risk-off response, where both stock prices and bond yields decreased. While the VIX increased, the equity spot-vol beta, volatility’s sensitivity to spot price…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Game Theory For Trump's Agenda

Simple games allow us to model several of the Trump administration’s most disruptive policies in 2025. We find that markets face an increase in volatility as Congress expands the budget, Trump implements tariffs on the world, China retaliates, and Taiwan tensions persist. A ceasefire in Ukraine is a marginally positive outcome for Europe, although it is not a long-term peace treaty. 

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken

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