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United States

Is The Fiscal Gravy Train Over?
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Marko Papic, Chief Strategist of our GeoMacro Strategy service. Marko has argued that the most important macro story over the past decade has been the transition from the Washington Consensus, promoting fiscal conservatism, to…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
More On Value And Timing

We examine Treasury market valuation and look for indicators that could help us time the next peak in yields. We also update the forecasts from our Treasury yield model.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Weekly Screeners: Trumpflation, Low-Beta US Stocks, Singapore Setback

This week, our screeners cover views on Trump 2.0, defensive US equity sectors, and a pullback in Singapore equities. Our first screener aims to hedge longer term inflation risks that Trump 2.0 will likely generate, targeting US equities that are highly correlated with future inflation expectations. Our second screener identifies several defensive sectors that are worth consideration, in case of a tactical pullback in US equities. Lastly, we pick out Singapore stocks that are cheap and high safety, should a pullback occur in the local bourse given weakening macro and technical conditions. 

Equity Analyzer by Guy Russell
An Uninspiring Retail Sales Report
December US retail sales missed estimates, with the headline number printing at 0.4% m/m, a decline from an upwardly revised 0.8% in November. On the positive side, the control group beat estimates at 0.7%. Netting it all out, the report was uninspiring,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Philly Fed Index: Signal Or Noise?
The January Philly Fed Manufacturing index blew past estimates, soaring to 44.3 vs. a revised 10.9 points contraction in December. Most subcomponents rose for both the current and expected categories. Measures of prices paid and received also ticked…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Matt Gertken, Arthur and Brandon
BCA Expert Webcast: China’s 2025 Headwinds: Deflation, Politics, And Protectionism
Please join us for a BCA Expert Webcast, Thursday, January 16 at 10:00 AM EDT, with Brendan Kelly, former Director for China Economics on the US National Security Council, veteran of the New York Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Defense Department, and life member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Geopolitical Strategy Webcast
CPI Cools, But Short-Term Risks Remain
The December US CPI came in better than expected. While headline CPI met estimates of 0.4% m/m (2.9% y/y), core surprised to the downside at 0.2% m/m, decelerating to 3.2% y/y from 3.3%. Moderation in core annual inflation was driven by both goods, which are…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Three Commodity Themes For 2025
Our Commodities & Energy strategists published a special report outlining three themes they see in the space for 2025. The themes are the following:  Sluggish global demand and weak industrial activity will likely weigh on cyclical commodities,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Is Good News Becoming Bad News Again?
Two main market events defined 2024, highlighting how assets will react to economic data on the tactical horizon. The August 2024 selloff marked a positive shift in the stock-bond yield correlation, as higher odds of a “hard landing” were priced in, after…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Upside Risks To Inflation

Our thoughts on this morning’s CPI release and some upside risks to inflation that could flare up in the months ahead.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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