United States
The US December jobs report came in stronger than expected. Payrolls rose by 256k vs. a downwardly revised 212k in November, leaving the 3-month moving average at about 170k. The unemployment and underemployment rates decreased to 4.1% (from 4.2%) and 7.5%…
The global economy is subject to numerous cycles displaying reflexivity and feedback loops. One of these is the relationship between financial conditions and growth. Given this relationship, economic strength can plant the seeds of its own demise.Markets are…
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Arthur Budaghyan, Chief Strategist for our Emerging Markets Strategy service. Arthur discusses the relationship between corporate bond yields and stock prices. Historically, US stocks suffer when US corporate bond yields…
Every year we highlight five low-odds scenarios that would have a major impact on global financial markets if they happened. This year we contemplate a total reversal of Chinese policy, a US-Iran nuclear deal, a breakdown of NATO, US military action across the Americas, and an internationally coordinated FX intervention.
The post-COVID inflation impacted the most important cross-asset relationship: the stock-bond correlation. Higher inflation expectations pushed yields higher, leading to a correction in bond and stock prices. As price pressures receded, bond yields fell and…
Our GeoMacro strategists published their Alpha Report, outlining their view that President Trump will have to pare back his fiscal ambitions to avoid a bond market riot. The long end of the US bond market continues to sell off, reinforcing our…
Oil prices have broken out above resistance from a tight trading range since the holidays. We attribute this latest rally to geopolitical tremors more than a vote of confidence from markets on global growth given softening data. The global economy is…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2025.
Job openings once again beat expectations in November, increasing to 8.1m from 7.8m in October. However, hires and quits decreased and layoffs increased. The gap between quits and layoffs, a leading indicator of labor market demand, ticked down. The jobs gap,…
The December ISM Services PMI beat estimates, increasing to 54.1 from 52.1 in November. All subcomponents increased except for employment, which nonetheless remains in expansion. The prices paid component was especially strong, increasing to 64.4 from…