United States
The Beige Book confirms a slow but resilient US economy. The January Beige Book points to activity increasing at a slight-to-modest pace in most Fed districts, a shift from earlier reports where most districts saw unchanged activity. Consumer spending remains…
Remain neutral on equities and underweight credit as the US economy enters 2026 at a pivotal but fragile point. A new year does not reset the business cycle, yet the US economy is entering 2026 at an important juncture. Recession fears have not materialized…
Our US and Geopolitical strategists argue that, despite intensifying socioeconomic and geopolitical challenges, the long-run case for US resilience remains intact. As the country marks its 250th year, the strategic rise of the US continues to shape global…
Maintain above-benchmark duration and 2-year/5-year Treasury steepeners as slowing labor income keeps downside risks for growth intact. November US retail sales beat estimates, with the headline rising 0.6% m/m after being flat in October. Core retail sales…
Maintain above-benchmark duration and 2-year/5-year Treasury steepeners as disinflation continues to support Fed cuts. US December CPI came in slightly cooler than expected, with headline inflation rising 0.3% m/m (2.7% y/y) and core inflation rising 0.2% m/m…
Our Global Fixed Income strategists maintain an above-benchmark duration stance as labor market risks continue to support downside yield potential, even as the global easing cycle winds down. With policy normalization largely complete, monetary policy is…
After 250 years, the USA is still the biggest thing happening in the world. But it faces huge challenges in the coming decades from socioeconomic imbalances and strategic competition.
This morning’s CPI report signals that the worst of the tariff impact on inflation may already be in the rearview mirror.
Congress will ultimately limit Trump from acting on his worst impulses, but his efforts to bypass those limits will cause market volatility.
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists remain constructive on risk assets and continue to overweight cyclical sectors while recommending staying overweight tail risk protection as markets brace for tariff-related uncertainty. A forthcoming decision on US…