United States
We noted earlier this month that the Fed would be unlikely to deliver a jumbo rate cut without telegraphing it first. President Williams' and Governor Waller’s September 6 speeches offered policymakers one last chance to do so before the customary pre-FOMC…
Preliminary estimates suggest that consumer sentiment improved in September. The headline University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased from 67.9 to a higher-than-projected 68.5. Both the current conditions and expectations components improved…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the imbalances in the US economy are sizeable enough to generate a mild recession. Unfortunately for equity investors, a mild recession would not preclude a deep correction in stocks. …
The US suffers from enough imbalances to produce a mild recession. Unfortunately, such a recession could lead to a significant bear market in stocks, just as it did during the very mild 2001 recession.
Continued deterioration in labor demand underpins our expectation for a US recession, as it will lead to slower compensation growth, hobbling consumption spending’s main driver. We also previously highlighted that the outlook for bond yields currently hinges…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the Fed’s upcoming rate cut will temporarily alleviate some of the downward pressure on the RMB, but beyond the short term the USD will likely rebound in anticipation of a global slowdown. The…
Some thoughts on this morning’s US claims report and a preview of next week’s FOMC meeting.
US headline CPI eased from 2.9% y/y to 2.5% in August in line with consensus predictions. However, core CPI unexpectedly accelerated from 0.2% m/m to 0.3%. Aside from airfares -- a highly volatile series which is likely to reverse in coming months given…
The decline in oil prices accelerated this month. Although Wednesday’s moves reversed Tuesday’s sharp daily declines, Brent and WTI have fallen 11% and 10% so far in September, and 30% and 33% from their April peaks. Deteriorating demand likely drove these…