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War/Conflict

The Market Is Complacent On War Risks
According to BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service, investors should reduce risk, increase allocation to safe havens, and brace for oil price volatility and supply disruptions stemming from the Middle East over the next zero-to-12 months.  …
Daily Insights
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Mideast Conflict Expands Beyond Gaza

Investors should reduce risk, increase allocation to safe havens, and brace for oil price volatility and supply disruptions stemming from the Middle East over the next zero-to-12 months.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
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Showdown In The Middle East, Shutdown In DC

Stronger US growth elicits a response from the House Republicans. But a government shutdown is not devastating to the economy. What is more devastating would be a crisis in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. Stay long US defense, energy, and large caps stocks.

US Political Strategy by Jesse Anak Kuri
Using Equity Analyzer To Navigate The Middle East Conflict
In a recent report, BCA Research’s Equity Analyzer service proposes two strategies to help investors navigate the conflict in the Middle East. The  first strategy uses the “Macro Sensitivities” filter on the platform to create a market diversified…
Daily Insights
Scrutinizing Geopolitical Risk
Geopolitical risk is returning to the market after a hiatus for most of 2023. Global investors are now realizing what our geopolitical strategists have argued all year: that the rise in geopolitical risk is a secular trend stemming from the…
Daily Insights
Higher Uncertainty Leaves Oil Forecast Unchanged
Our Commodity & Energy Strategy colleagues (CES) left their 2024 Brent crude oil price forecast unchanged at $118/bbl.  This is not because nothing’s changed in the market.  Rather, higher levels of uncertainty bring with them offsetting risks,…
Daily Insights
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Israel At War: Synopsis Of Causes And Effects

Investors underestimate the likelihood of the war in Israel spilling outside of Gaza, and engulfing wider swaths of the Middle East, endangering energy supplies. Stay overweight Energy and Aerospace & Defense.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Odds Of War With Hezbollah Are Underrated
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Israel’s retaliation against Hamas has a 70% chance of expanding beyond Gaza in some form over the coming 12 months. The team’s scenarios and probabilities for how the conflict will evolve are as…
Daily Insights
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A Larger Middle East Crisis

The Israeli-Arab crisis is more likely to expand and cause oil disruptions than market consensus holds. Close long dollar trades and go long energy and defense stocks relative to cyclicals.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Middle East Conflict Fuels Oil Volatility
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, volatility will remain the key dynamic in oil markets in the aftermath of the surprise Hamas attacks against Israel on October 7. Everything depends on whether Israeli and US intelligence conclude…
Daily Insights

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Cyber Security Diplomacy/Foreign Relations Domestic Politics Economic Sanctions Elections Inequality Mid East Conflict Populism/Inequality Secession/Breakup Social Unrest See more Topics