Insights

Did you know that the high-quality Japanese zippers you use every day are macro relevant? That is because YKK dared to sue – and win – against President Richard Nixon 10% across-the-board tariffs. ...

On the one hand, US tariffs are much more deflationary for the rest of the world than for the US, so interest rate differentials might move in favor of the US dollar in the near term. On the other hand, portfolio outflows from the US will weigh on the greenback over a cyclical horizon. We recommend ...

The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio outperformed its benchmark in March, despite realizing a negative return. USHQ returned -2.6%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned -3.9%. Over a trailing-quarter basis, USHQ posted meaningful outperformance vs. benchmark, generating +230bps of excess return, while ...

Tariffs will make a difficult job almost impossible. Hitting and sustaining a precise 2 percent inflation target is more about luck than judgement. It requires both the starting point for inflation expectations and any inflation/deflation shock to combine perfectly to 2 percent. While structural inf...

Trump's Tariff D-Day brings a negative surprise to financial markets already anxious over a declining US cyclical economy. Investors should sell risky assets, increase safe havens, and overweight US assets in the near term....

The White House has revealed the plans for Liberation Day. They broadly include: Reciprocal tariffs, on a case-by-case basis.A message from President Trump to other countries to lower their own tariffs and buy US goods. Our take is that April 2 will be remembered – 6-12 months from now – a...

April 2 may mark peak trade tensions, but the path forward remains highly uncertain, supporting our underweight on risk assets and industrial commodities. The USTR’s long-awaited report on trade barriers will guide the next phase of US trade policy. While the report only contains a total of 13 pages...

Liberation Day is coming to America! In honor of the new holiday, GeoMacro will be increasing prices using an algorithm that will determine how much each client owes us for the sweet taste of their liberty (… from the clutches of normative geopolitical analysis)!...

In this month’s Beta report, we continue our series supporting our bullish thesis on Europe. We take a deep dive into the aftermath of the European energy crisis – dispelling the myth that Europe faces risks of imminent deindustrialization – and evaluate the impact the approaching LNG wave will have...

The trade war is on everyone’s mind with America’s “Liberation Day” upon us! However, the reality under the surface is that the main macro narrative has been a rotation – nay… exodus – out of US assets into RoW. This was not supposed to happen with de-globalization and a MAGA trade policy. US assets...