Insights

Please join Chief Geopolitical Strategist, Matt Gertken and Chief Commodities Strategist, Roukaya Ibrahim, for a Webcast.

Wednesday, July 29
11:00 AM AEST

 Matt and Roukaya will discuss: 

• The geopolitical backdrop remains tricky as the US enters election season amid global struggles.
• The US-China tariff truce is holding for now. But will high-tech restrictions over AI start to rise?
• The mid-August deadline for the US and Iran to forge a real ceasefire is coming soon. Will they agree?
• What happens after the midterm election? Will Trump escalate both the trade war and Iran war?
• Ceasefire violations pose threats to commodity supply. What is the status of oil supply and demand?
• What other factors will drive oil and commodity prices through the end of the year?  Is gold a buy?
• What other geopolitical and commodity trends will impact Australia and the world in the coming months and years?

Although the macro backdrop isn’t perfect and the equity setup isn’t ideal, the US economy and the S&P 500 continue to hold their ground. The conflict with Iran resists resolution but the latest flare up is in line with our geopolitical experts’ script, and they are not concerned that it heralds a material escalation. Equity investors have evinced a little discomfort with mushrooming AI investment projections, but we think the hyperscalers’ budgeted expenditures are safe for the next few quarters.

Please join Head of Essentials, Doug Peta, for a Webcast.

Wednesday, August 5
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST

Doug will discuss Iran, AI, and other items in investors’ focus, along with the following key drivers:

• The labor market
• Consumption
• Inflation
• Monetary policy
• Corporate earnings

Please join Head of CoreMacro, Arthur Budaghyan, for a Webcast.

Thursday, August 20
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST

Arthur will discuss:

• Global currency markets are on the edge: the US dollar will become pro-cyclical, and the euro will become counter-cyclical.
• This regime shift would upend financial market correlations, and most investment portfolios are not positioned for it.
• The main driver of currency markets will change from interest rates to the balance of payments.
• The dollar’s dependence on net foreign flows into US equities is far greater today than ever.
• A low bar for US dollar depreciation: No net capital outflows necessary — just smaller inflows.
• A weaker US dollar will be deflationary, not reflationary, for the rest of the world.
• EM stocks will not rally in absolute terms despite a weak US dollar.
• Which asset classes and regions will perform the best during this US dollar devaluation?

In this Webcast, Juan and Brian introduced the Portfolio Construction platform and showed how it brought Public and Private Markets together in a unified framework. They also discussed the key allocation views behind why investors:

• Should Overweight Private Equity
• Should rotate out of momentum stocks into quality and hyperscalers
• Should downgrade Late-Stage Venture Capital

Moreover, they reviewed their outlook on the macro economy, fixed income, rates, real estate, infrastructure and liquid alternatives.

Please join Strategists, Mathieu Savary, with Ryan Swift, Roukaya Ibrahim, Robert Timper, and Artem Sakhbiev, for the BCA's Q3 FICC (Fixed Income, Commodities & Currencies) Outlook Webcast.

Tuesday, July 14
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST

Where they will discuss our take on the macro forces driving global fixed income, currencies, and commodities into year-end.

Topics to be discussed:

• US rates under a Warsh-led Fed,
• Where G10 central banks diverge from the Fed,
• The best opportunities we see across global bond markets,
• The dollar's path through year-end, and which currencies are set to win or lose most,
• Whether the US-Iran de-escalation holds, and the read-through for oil and the broader commodity complex.

Hosted By: Noah Weisberger, Chief US Equity Strategist

Moderated By: Jason Glazer, Senior VP, Sales

The US economy is back in Expansion, with growth positive and improving, and US equities continue to climb on the back of a firming cycle and AI-related drivers. Fundamentals still look firm: earnings expectations are rising, margins are expanding, and corporate commentary points to durable demand. But sticky inflation, higher rates, tighter financial conditions, and a coming wave of monster IPOs raise the bar for valuations.

Key topics discussed:

• Expansion extends: what the cyclical indicators are signaling now
• Capex, cash flow, AI: the boom/bubble debate, and why free cash flow matters
• Beyond tech: where AI demand and infrastructure needs are showing up next
• Earnings and margins: how much support is still coming from fundamentals
• Rates and valuations: why this may be the real constraint
• IPO supply: what 40 years of data suggests about forward returns
• Tactically, oil price relief is a reason for cyclical exposures and laggards to get a look: Long Materials, Long Consumer Cyclicals

Hosted By: Noah Weisberger, Chief US Equity Strategist

Moderated By: Jason Glazer, Senior VP, Sales

Key Topics Discussed:

• A 2H2026 update of our outlook: Fundamentals vs. fears
• What are our baskets telling us: Rotation not regime break
• Growth ascendant: Inflation fears contained
• Tactically long consumer (on the back of oil price relief)

Please join Chief Strategists Matt Gertken and Mathieu Savary for a Webcast.

Mathieu and Matt discussed:

• The US-Iran deal and next steps in trying to resume global commodity flows.
• The impact of energy prices on global demand, inflation, and interest rates so far.
• Different scenarios for commodity prices and economic impacts going forward.
• How the market is likely to respond to these scenarios – and what could go wrong.
• What other geopolitical and macro risks and opportunities are looming in H2 2026?

Earnings versus everything else has been an apt description for the macro backdrop during the conflict with Iran. Earnings growth has been red hot, but the Middle East was a mess, oil and other energy-related costs soared, bond yields surged and money markets priced in a central bank U-turn from cuts to hikes. Earnings have carried the day to this point, and we think the equity market has been right to follow them.

 Doug discussed the events that could shift the narrative while keeping tabs on the following key drivers:

• The labor market
• Consumption
• Inflation
• Monetary policy
• AI investment
• Portfolio positioning over 3- and 12-month timeframes