Insights

Goldilocks, with fault lines underneath. Our first joint FICC outlook lays out where growth, inflation, and policy are headed this quarter and where the calm could crack....

The Goldilocks environment for US profit margins should start to sour next year. Contrary to conventional wisdom, AI could end up eroding margins for both producers and consumers of artificial intelligence....

The rebound in China's producer prices and profits this year owes more to external demand than to meaningful progress under Beijing's anti-involution campaign....

As part of our new and improved GeoMacro service, please find attached our Global Risk Outlook, a quarterly digest of scenario probabilities and estimated market impacts for all the major geopolitical topics in the world today. ...

We review our Model Bond Portfolio performance for Q2 and look ahead as fixed income markets move beyond the US-Iran conflict, which is finding its kinetic equilibrium. Valuations and growth differentials are moving against continued US Treasury outperformance....

Just as we declared that geopolitical risk has peaked for the year – in yesterday’s Alpha report – President Trump has declared the ceasefire with Iran over after repeated violations via strikes against three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. That is the life of an investment strategist. But the unde...

We remain bullish on risk assets given that the Hormuz war has resolved itself and oil prices have declined by even more than we expected. In addition, the macro fundamentals are not flashing any red signs. That said, we remain skeptical that the AI revolution will continue without any hiccups. In f...

S&P 500 performance rotated in June, but fundamental growth remains strong across sectors, with earnings and revenue growth extending well beyond the largest mega-cap companies....

We are increasingly being asked if higher for longer interest rates could help spur consumption by boosting interest income. This report examines household income and balance sheet data to see if they might....

The UK economy is becoming increasingly fragile, but the investment outlook is improving. Slower growth and a more dovish BoE will support gilts, while UK equities will likely benefit from a favorable sector mix and a weaker pound....