Insights

This report presents our interpretation of signals from the main equity, bond, and currency markets around the world. The key takeaways are: (1) Chinese stocks are behind the resilience of the EM MSCI Index; (2) Investors have become too bullish on Europe and will be disappointed...

The US economy faces a new investment regime characterized by tighter fiscal and easier monetary policies. The market corrected fast, and a short-lived equity rebound is likely. However, over the long term, US equities face economic headwinds....

We share with our clients a brief rundown of “Washington, DC” intelligence on the upcoming April 2 tariffs. Most of it is bearish. However, the day may mark “peak de-globalization hysteria.” President Trump is also starting his Maximum Pressure campaign against Iran. That is two such campaigns at th...

An analysis of historical data shows that Ba-rated bonds outperform other corporate credit tiers in the long-run on a risk-adjusted basis. That said, today’s fragile macro environment warrants a more cautious allocation. ...

Households’ healthy balance sheets do not square with the rise in credit cards and auto loans delinquencies. The tailwinds that have supported higher-income cohorts’ spending have faded, presaging broad-based deterioration in credit performance. ...

European equities have surged on hopes of a low-inflation boom—but the rally has likely gone too far, too fast. With a pullback now likely, how should investors position themselves over the next 3–6 months?...

This week, our three screeners cover equity plays for “transitory” inflation impacts from US tariffs, a correction in sentiment within the European Aerospace and Defense industry, and Value Investor, Warren Buffett’s Philosophy.  ...

Brazilian policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place. There is no combination of fiscal and monetary policies that can assure decent growth, on-target inflation, a stable exchange rate, and public debt sustainability. We recommend investors maintain an underweight allocation to Brazilian...

Given the meetings between the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank, our highest convictions views are:Overweight UK Gilts. It is also time to sell sterling. We are short sterling, as of 1.30. Underweight JGBs. Correspondingly, be long the yen. A short CHF/JPY po...

In this Special Report, GeoMacro Strategist Marko Papic argues that the Trump administration is flirting with high risk / low reward. Triggering a recession may be the end goal of the White House, but borrowing costs are not declining as much as they ought to be while President Trump’s political cap...