Insights

Notwithstanding periodic short-term rebounds, the path of least resistance for global share prices remains down. The resilience of European and Chinese stocks in the face of the US equity selloff is unsustainable. These economies will deteriorate as US demand – the sole pillar of global growth in th...

The trade war complicates the Bank of Canada’s task to achieve stable inflation. But the bottom line is that rising uncertainty, which will dampen business sentiment, will cause the BoC to cut rates by at least what is priced in the CORRA curve, and likely to 2%. The CAD, which is very oversold, mig...

A falling stock market and sticky bond yields represent the worst of both worlds for investors. We interrogate why bond yields haven’t dropped more given the large selloff seen in equities....

The Q4 earnings results were spectacular but are now in the rear-view mirror. Now, investors are laser-focused on tariff threats, earnings headwinds brought about by a stronger dollar, and an unhappy consumer. Our analysis of earnings commentary found that, while companies often refer to tariffs dur...

President Trump may not avoid recession. If he does, he faces stagflation, given tariffs, counter-tariff stimulus, and the missing ingredient: an oil price spike. ...

OPEC+ is planning to boost its crude oil output at a time of lingering demand weakness. What is driving this decision? And will Chinese oil consumption – historically a key contributor to global oil demand growth – reaccelerate and justify the coalition’s decision to bring back more supply to t...

The ports that BlackRock acquired on both sides of the Panama Canal appear to be a bargain in terms of the entry valuation. But are the risks being appropriately compensated? In this prefatory report, we prepare investors for our upcoming Infrastructure reports, which will highlight geopolitical ris...

Stock market has continued to sell off as investors try to price President Trump’s trade policy, geopolitical volatility, global manufacturing slowdown, and the apparently cavalier attitude by the White House regarding the risk of a recession. At the same time, it is interesting that the USD and Big...

In this report, we explore the Canadian provincial bond market by developing a model to analyze its main drivers and understand the impact of a potential trade war between Canada and the US....

There is an alternative to investing in US stocks: Do it via Europe (DIVE). Allocate to European sectors or stocks that are highly and positively correlated with the Magnificent 7 but do not suffer stretched valuations....