Insights

Europe’s resilience to global liquidity deterioration isn’t a fluke—it signals a structural shift. Our latest report explains why the decline in precautionary money demand marks the end of Europe’s liquidity trap and what it means for investors....

The MacroQuant model is no longer bullish on stocks but is not yet prepared to turn underweight. Subjectively, the Global Investment Strategy team is more bearish on equities than the model. ...

This week, our three screeners cover equity plays in European Banks, US Financials, And US Stocks that are “Grave Diggers”....

The tariffs on Canada and Mexico will come into effect as scheduled while the tariffs on China will be doubled. In the Middle East, Iranian response to any attack will threaten Middle Eastern oil supply. Meanwhile, Chinese fiscal support will surprise to the upside at the Two Sessions. But Trump's C...

The MacroQuant model is no longer bullish on stocks but is not yet prepared to turn underweight. Subjectively, the Global Investment Strategy team is more bearish on equities than the model. ...

Core PCE inflation was tame this morning, but with large tariffs looming we anticipate loftier inflation readings in the months ahead....

In Section II, Jonathan presents a checklist that investors can use to confirm whether AI’s purported productivity gains are real. The checklist does not currently suggest that artificial intelligence is meaningfully boosting productivity growth. US equity valuation reflects very significant optimis...

In Section I, Doug notes that the chaos of the new administration, including bellicose tariff threats and DOGE’s abrasive and indiscriminate approach, are sowing uncertainty and fortifying economic headwinds. Lowered guidance of prominent retailers, alongside weakening services PMIs, bode poorly for...

The US (and the UK) is staring down the barrel of a ‘mini-stagflation’ until a deflationary shock arrives to neutralise it. We describe a likely source for the deflationary shock and list three investment conclusions that are valid irrespective of how long it takes for the deflationary shock to arri...

Despite the broad market being expensive and overbought, value plays across US equity sectors exist. Real Estate, Communication Services, and Consumer Staples offer cheaper valuations with higher quality attributes relative to history. ...