Insights

The risk of a “super El Niño” represents a meaningful threat to agricultural markets. Wheat, cocoa, and palm oil appear particularly vulnerable to El Niño-related supply disruptions. A rise in food prices could also generate political — and potentially geopolitical — reverberations across front...

The most vulnerable households have whittled down their real debt balances while achieving significant real wealth gains. The combination has made consumption more resilient to income hiccups than in past cycles....

AI is transformative, yet tech stocks may not produce positive returns. Market cycles have not disappeared. Greed and fear will still produce large share price fluctuations. Meanwhile, US inflation is the key near-term risk. Global non-tech capex aspirations also look overstated....

We react to DM central bank meetings this week and highlight the opportunities emerging across global fixed income and currency markets....

A surefire way to make money is to buy stocks in industries experiencing shortages. AI supply-chain bottlenecks will persist for the next few years but markets will price in relief before then....

This report addresses five frequently asked questions from our Greater China clients over the past few months....

The US-Iran deal offers temporary relief from oil supply risk, but both Hormuz and trade tensions could revive in 2027....

Kevin Warsh announced an ambitious reform agenda for the Federal Reserve. We discuss the potential impact and the current outlook for interest rates....

Ebola remains one of the world's deadliest viral diseases, but it is far less transmissible than COVID-19 or influenza. The most likely outcome remains containment rather than a global pandemic....

South Africa’s ambitious reform agenda will take time to bear fruit. Meanwhile, the country faces a stagflationary squeeze as inflation rises while growth slows. South African stocks, bonds, and currency are all vulnerable....