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Insights

Access expert research, timely insights, and exclusive webcasts to help you make confident, data-driven decisions.

All Reports Webcasts
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Report
The Hormuz Strait: India’s Achilles Heel
India is probably the most vulnerable among the G-20 economies should the Strait of Hormuz not reopen fully by the end of this month. Growth will slow, while inflation will rise materially. Investors should brace for further weakness in the currency and stock prices....
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Report
Will AI Accelerate Productivity? Don’t Bet On It
New Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, is betting that an AI-driven productivity acceleration will get the Fed out of jail for persistently missing its 2 percent inflation target. But history informs us that while new technology adoption is exponential, total productivity growth is not. So, if Warsh’s bet goes...
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Report
Still Priced For Hikes
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2026....
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Report
China HFI Chartbook: China’s Widening K-Shaped Economy
China’s K-shaped economy is widening, with resilient exports and subdued domestic consumption. Over the next 6–12 months, we see a higher probability that global capex momentum persists than China delivers meaningful consumer-focused stimulus....
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Webcast Replay
Noah Holds Barred: The Risk On Rally

US Equity Strategy Webcast Series: Noah Holds Barred - Episode 2

Noah and Jason discussed:

  • What earnings, revisions and expectations are telling us now
  • The latest read on Tech revenues, capex, and demand for AI
  • Why we are long Software
  • The outlook for margins: Macro headwinds vs. AI
  • Key feedback and pushback from 32 client meetings & 34 Lunch and Dinner attendees:
    • The impact of AI IPOs, consumer spending trends, Utilities underweight
Watch Now
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Report
Seven Reasons Why The Hormuz Crisis Has Yet To Cause The Global Economy To Crash
The global economy has weathered the oil shock reasonably well so far. However, the risk of a recession will increase meaningfully if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into June....
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Report
Geopolitics Is (Still) Not Transitory
The tenuous ceasefire holds, with the "new geopolitical equilibrium scenario" remaining in place. Enough crude trickles through Hormuz to avert a global recession, but not to alleviate building inflationary pressures, a product of a complicated geomacro context that is not transitory. The Fed will l...
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Insight
AI Is STILL The Business Cycle
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists upgrade equities to overweight at the expense of cash, moving EU equities from overweight to underweight while upgrading the US to neutral. Our colleagues argue AI remains the central market thesis despite the oil shock. Recent hyperscaler results reinforce th...
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Insight
The US Consumer Is Not Flinching Yet
The April Conference Board survey beat estimates, with both current conditions and expectations improving. Consumer confidence rose to 92.8 from 92.2, when consensus expected a pullback. Consumers’ assessment of their present situation was mostly flat after positive revisions to the prior month, whi...
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Report
Central Bank Monitor Update: No Move Until June
Central banks remain on hold amid heightened uncertainty. We rely on BCA’s Central Bank Monitors to assess the current policy stance of major central banks, and highlight the tactical opportunities across bond markets and currencies....
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