Insights
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Report
The debate over “what replaces the dollar” is misguided. The real shift is toward a multi-anchor system where reserve functions fragment. That changes everything from term premia to cross-asset correlations. The implication: portfolios built for the old regime are already behind the curve....
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Webcast Replay
Macro headlines may have shifted attention away from Private Markets, but the underlying risks remain. We revisit the Private Credit-Software cracks we flagged early and explain why, despite the noise, the structural story is just getting started.
- How did we get here?
- Is Software making or breaking Private Credit's diversification case?
- Systemic risk or a normal credit cycle?
- How are our 2024 calls on Distressed versus Buyouts playing out?
- Where are the most overlooked opportunities across Private (and Public) Markets right now?
Report
The S&P 500 rally is likely more than just risk-relief. Market internals reflect strengthening economic growth and higher inflation, with support coming from robust earnings. Tight financial conditions have compressed valuations, particularly within the Tech sector. We are initiating a long Soft...
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Report
The dollar’s pullback masks a quiet improvement in its cyclical backdrop, with growth, monetary policy, and flows turning in its favor. As markets fully price out geopolitical risk, the USD should decouple from oil and better reflect these gains, despite lingering structural headwinds....
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Webcast Replay
Marko Papic, Matt Gertken, and Roukaya Ibrahim look at the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the implications for global financial markets.
Topics discussed:
- Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold? What should investors monitor to determine whether it is failing?
- How long will it take for energy flows and shipping to improve significantly? What would cause a relapse?
- Will the disconnect between financial markets and the real economic impact prove lasting or significant?
- How should investors position for the future evolution of commodity markets and commodity-linked assets?
- What other market dynamics will emerge and will Hormuz remain the central global focus?
Webcast Replay
Juan discussed:
- What are the consequences of the current oil shock to the global economy?
- How will policy makers respond to this shock?
- What indicators should investors be looking for a resolution?
- What indicators should investors look for to get more positive on equities?
- What are the long term consequences of the war?
