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Insights

Access expert research, timely insights, and exclusive webcasts to help you make confident, data-driven decisions.

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Report
We estimate that a US 60/40 portfolio will return 6.9% over the next 10-to-15 years. In this update, we include hedging costs projections and revamp our scenario analysis to incorporate hypothetical outcomes to the AI capex cycle. ...
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Report
An investor might not guess it from the Trump administration’s impatience with bond-market, military and tariff roadblocks, but the US economy is faring just fine. Asset allocators should remain fully invested as per their benchmarks....
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Report
Our colleague Matt Gertken has penned a sober analysis on the midterms, calling for a Democratic Party sweep in 2026. It is a measured, data-driven, analysis that we encourage you to read.This quick Insight is neither sober nor data driven. It is hyperbolic and based on “vibes.” ...
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Webcast Replay

Noah Holds Barred Webcast: Episode 4 (Special Edition): Defense Wins Championships: Aerospace & Defense In A Multipolar World

Hosted By: Noah Weisberger, Chief US Equity Strategist, Matt Gertken, Head of GeoMacro

Moderated By: Jason Glazer, Senior Vice President, Sales

Thursday, August 27
10:30 AM-11:00 AM EDT | 3:30 PM-4:00 PM BST | 4:30 PM-5:00 PM CEST

Key topics discussed:

  • The increasing frequency of global conflicts that fail to resolve into durable ceasefires
  • Near-term risk to the S&P 500 from an intensification of the Ukraine war
  • Risk of a post-midterm re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict
  • Trump-Xi thaw and US-China security competition as drivers of global military spending
  • The impact of the spending outlook on aerospace and defense stocks
  • Do stock prices reflect the impact of a multipolar world?
  • Potential ways to hedge ongoing geopolitical tensions
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Report
Poland’s near-term growth story remains compelling: surging EU investment should cushion European weakness and support equity outperformance. But the clock is ticking. Demographics, skills shortages, and fiscal deterioration will increasingly constrain convergence. Favor Polish equities and the bell...
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Report
US aerospace and defense stocks still have a structural tailwind from geopolitics, but face rising cyclical challenges from macro and market fundamentals, as well as eventual Iran and Ukraine ceasefires and political change in the United States....
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Report
The PCE/CPI gap is an increasingly important factor driving the near-term outlook for Fed policy. We discuss the drivers of that gap and conclude that it’s likely to narrow in the coming months. ...
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Report
Many clients have asked us for an analysis of the long-term implications of the Hormuz Crisis. In this report, we posit that the conflict has been catalyzed by the multipolar context and that it will merely ossify the trends already afoot. Nothing offers incentives for more global capex like the thr...
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Report
BCA's CoreMacro and Portfolio Construction teams combine two distinct but intersecting lenses to revisit a once heralded opportunity: India. We upgrade India across both public and private markets, but the conviction is not the same everywhere....
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Report
Canada may welcome a trade skirmish with the US. It has ample fiscal room with which to retaliate and its domestic political calculus – with bubbling risk of secession – means that fighting an external threat is a boon, not a bore....
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