Insights

M&A activity finally reaccelerated in Q4 2025—it’s just the start. Macro Hedge Funds have outperformed with top-decile performance from Discretionary Macro—but that’s towards the end. We move Macro from overweight to underweight and Event Driven from neutral to overweight....

The president did not announce significant new tax cuts or economic stimulus....

This report examines the implications for Chinese exports and global trade in light of the US Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs....

The US economy is in the Slowdown phase of the business cycle, according to our measure of aggregate US economic activity; growth remains positive but acceleration is negative. Historically, this phase more often resolves in reacceleration than recession. Recent market price action, from the index, ...

We introduce our Macro Regime Indicators (MRI), a framework for forecasting growth and inflation surprises in the US. The MRI on the economy shows no substantial mispricing in either growth or inflation over the next 12 months....

Fourth quarter US GDP growth clocked in at 1.4%, well below consensus expectations of 2.8%. We are not too troubled by the miss. The government shutdown weighed on the economy, with government spending subtracting 0.9 percentage points from growth. Real private final domestic demand – a clean measur...

Trump is saving face with new tariffs but will avoid any major new tariff shock until 2027. For now, Iran risk will overshadow tariff volatility....

The “Chuck Norris Premium” is now fully in the market. Since the miraculously successful nabbing of President Nicolas Maduro on January 3, the odds of subsequent use of military against Iran increased. ...

The neutral rate in the US is being propped up by a variety of forces that are at risk of reversing. These include the AI capex boom, large budget deficits, and the extraordinarily high level of household wealth. As such, interest rates are likely to surprise to the downside over the next few years....

Oil price risks remain skewed to the upside over the near term as geopolitical risks continue to dominate.Nevertheless, we ultimately expect bearish fundamentals to reassert themselves over a six-to-12-month timeframe and drive oil prices lower....