Insights

The yen carry trade will unwind this year. However, it will be triggered by a drop in “carry asset” prices and a spike in the JPY/USD, rather than by Japan’s improving interest rate differentials. Go long JPY against the USD....

What’s driving government bond yields, and how do different bond markets impact each other? In today's Strategy Insight, we decompose yield moves into global drivers and idiosyncratic local drivers....

Ignore Japan's constitutional debate. Rearmament will accelerate anyway. Tech, defense stocks, and industrials will benefit. The threat to JGBs is real but will probably be contained....

Private Infrastructure is the fastest growing alternative asset class. While metrics vary across data providers, differences largely reflect sector and regional mix. Core Infrastructure inflows have been strong, reversing declines seen in preceding years. Recent returns have been robust, and despite...

Earnings strength, durability, and breadth are all improving. As the market transitions from multiple-driven to earnings-driven returns, this backdrop supports continued gains in 2026—but with less concentration and greater scope for laggards to catch up rather than leaders to roll over....

The ECB is about to make its first policy mistake in the current cycle by being complacent about the downside risks to inflation. The confluence of base effects, a stronger euro, food and energy deflation, and rapid services disinflation will push headline inflation closer to 1% in the first half of...

The US High Quality portfolio outperformed its benchmark through January, returning 1.50%, while its SPY benchmark returned 0.26%. On a trailing three-month basis, the USHQ portfolio’s performance was stronger than the benchmark as well, with USHQ outperforming by approx. 152bps....

China is providing limited stimulus, promoting tech and trade, and maintaining a tariff truce with the US in 2026. Structural flaws and great power struggle continue to cast dark clouds over the long run....

Our US equity strategists expect another year of gains for the S&P 500 in 2026, with returns capped by revenue growth as the bull market matures. The US economy is slowing but not contracting, pointing to positive but more modest equity returns. Equity performance should be increasingly driven b...

The US labor market remains weak but stable, leaving both labor conditions and US rates at a pivotal point. Given the partial government shutdown, Friday’s January employment report has been postponed to February 11. Alternative data show the US labor market remains in a “low hiring, low firing” mod...