Insights

With the US unemployment rate and interest rate close to the ‘neutral’ u-star and r-star respectively, further Fed rate cuts risk pushing up inflation and long-term inflation expectations. This is bad for bonds but good for stocks. Plus, two new trades are: short TOPIX versus DAX; and short CAT vers...

Spain's equity and bond outperformance reflects genuine fundamental repair: Lower bad loans, stronger profitability, and sustained earnings upgrades. Valuations remain undemanding despite the rally. Productivity is the key structural risk, but near-term fundamentals continue to surprise to the upsid...

After 250 years, the USA is still the biggest thing happening in the world. But it faces huge challenges in the coming decades from socioeconomic imbalances and strategic competition....

This morning’s CPI report signals that the worst of the tariff impact on inflation may already be in the rearview mirror....

Stay constructive on European defense stocks and increase strategic exposure to industrial metals as geopolitical priorities reassert themselves. Following the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, top US officials seem to confirm that President Trump is exploring ways to buy Greenland. While the ...

The year 2026 has started off well, with not even the threat to central bank independence denting the market's enthusiasm. Perhaps our tactical caution is misplaced....

Our Q1 outlook maps global growth, curve dynamics, and policy surprises, which we then translate to our recommended global fixed income portfolio allocations and trades....

Congress will ultimately limit Trump from acting on his worst impulses, but his efforts to bypass those limits will cause market volatility....

The risk to Iran's regime survival raises the probability of a massive global oil supply shock back to around 40%, where we put it last year. ...

Our Global Investment strategists expect 2026 to follow a two-stage pattern: a “Great Rotation” from tech to non-tech equities in H1, followed by a broader market selloff in H2 as US economic momentum fades. Much like the 2000 cycle, the initial phase of sector rotation may mask deeper fragilities i...